redgooner
0xde06d185667b79b1df7cbc67167d8b3a88a93f37
- Realised P&L
- $19.33
- Volume
- $2.9k
- Markets traded
- 34
- Open portfolio
- $218.18
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded34
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample30 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)93.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31? · No | 0.950 | 0.923 | $58.73 | −$1.69 |
| Will Cole Young win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award? · No | 0.995 | 0.994 | $54.64 | −$0.08 |
| Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2026? · No | 0.983 | 0.970 | $53.35 | −$0.71 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the IL-01 House seat? · Yes | 0.981 | 0.971 | $51.46 | −$0.53 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.36at 0.940US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
- +$2.38at 0.956Will Iran Play in the World Cup?
- +$2.31at 0.958Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
- +$2.21at 0.942Peru General Election invalidated by June 30?
- +$2.20at 0.910Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-14 10:15 | Will Chelsea finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? | BUY | 0.9199999769 | $22.32 |