FreshNewBeginning
0xddf6b8556091bd4299c4bffa32e59e31188d6b37
- Realised P&L
- $38.72
- Volume
- $15.5k
- Markets traded
- 186
- Open portfolio
- $25.38
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded186
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration9.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration9.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$22.02at 0.270Arsenal FC leading at halftime?
- +$3.33at 0.024Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal?
- +$2.58at 0.013Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15?
- +$2.22at 0.060Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by July 31, 2026?
- +$2.14at 0.042Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-30 09:26 | Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.01 |
| 07-30 09:18 | Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.03 |
| 07-28 16:46 | Will AbbVie Q2 Global Skyrizi net revenues be above $20B? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.02 |
| 07-28 16:39 | Will AbbVie Q2 Global Skyrizi net revenues be above $20B? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.15 |
| 07-28 13:02 | Will Russia enter Serhiivka by July 31? | SELL | 0.031 | $0.24 |
| 07-28 12:55 | Will Russia enter Serhiivka by July 31? | SELL | 0.031 | $0.31 |
| 07-27 16:50 | Romanian PM Bolojan out by July 31? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.48 |
| 07-27 09:41 | Will 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.011 | $0.07 |
| 07-27 09:32 | Will 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.011 | $0.33 |
| 07-27 07:34 | Will Anthropic remove paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.02 |
| 07-27 07:25 | Will Anthropic remove paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0036666667 | $0.11 |
| 07-26 14:00 | Will AbbVie Q2 Global Skyrizi net revenues be above $18B? | SELL | 0.012 | $0.27 |
| 07-26 10:50 | Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.006 | $0.15 |
| 07-26 07:13 | Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by July 31? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.03 |
| 07-25 10:44 | Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $8B by July 31? | SELL | 0.014 | $0.49 |