0xdD9DB48BD792D5CEED6500320ab4Ac621d6DCc8A-1767746477609
0xdd9db48bd792d5ceed6500320ab4ac621d6dcc8a
- Realised P&L
- $-650.55
- Volume
- $3.9k
- Markets traded
- 33
- Open portfolio
- $346.03
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-16.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded33
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample23 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? · Yes | 0.550 | 1.000 | $90.91 | +$40.91 |
| Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal? · Yes | 0.769 | 1.000 | $65.05 | +$15.05 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.205 | $64.06 | −$35.94 |
| Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? · Yes | 0.850 | 1.000 | $58.82 | +$8.82 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.405 | $44.95 | −$5.00 |
| Will BRICS add a new member in 2026? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.110 | $13.75 | −$36.25 |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.095 | $8.48 | −$41.52 |
| Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? · Yes | 0.619 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$80.55at 0.383Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?
- +$72.13at 0.390Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
- +$35.43at 0.585Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
- +$28.57at 0.636Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
- +$25.38at 0.650Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-11 01:11 | Will Trump visit China by March 31? | BUY | 0.6599999889 | $50.00 |
| 03-11 00:59 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | BUY | 0.5302024363 | $50.00 |
| 03-11 00:52 | Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | SELL | 0.19 | $16.37 |
| 03-04 01:04 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.32 | $100.00 |
| 03-04 01:04 | Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | SELL | 0.65 | $51.58 |
| 03-04 01:04 | Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? | SELL | 0.74 | $59.67 |
| 03-04 01:03 | Will there be between 14 and 17 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026? | SELL | 0.016 | $1.17 |
| 02-27 03:24 | Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? | SELL | 0.005 | $0.40 |
| 02-26 00:00 | State of the Union Bingo - Card 3 | SELL | 0.001 | $0.08 |
| 02-25 01:17 | Will there be between 14 and 17 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026? | BUY | 0.5452441048 | $40.00 |
| 02-25 01:07 | US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by March 7? | BUY | 0.6799999984 | $50.00 |
| 02-25 00:57 | Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | BUY | 0.6299999982 | $50.00 |
| 02-25 00:56 | Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? | BUY | 0.6199999975 | $50.00 |
| 02-25 00:54 | Will Donald Trump's tie be another color? | BUY | 0.7315202145 | $50.00 |
| 02-25 00:51 | Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? | BUY | 0.6193806181 | $50.00 |