0xdd8bcd7609558d1d3587124a32a9c0180044d51a
0xdd8bcd7609558d1d3587124a32a9c0180044d51a
- Realised P&L
- $-689.74
- Volume
- $19.8k
- Markets traded
- 612
- Open portfolio
- $101.29
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded612
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · Yes | 0.186 | 0.966 | $51.95 | +$41.95 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No | 0.940 | 0.976 | $15.57 | +$0.57 |
| Will GPT Astra's output price be at or above $60 in 2026? · No | 0.683 | 0.730 | $9.86 | +$0.63 |
| Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026? · No | 0.809 | 0.870 | $9.36 | +$0.65 |
| Will a transfer restriction on Manchester City be applied by the 2027 summer transfer window? · No | 0.390 | 0.545 | $6.78 | +$1.93 |
| Closer Senate Race: Alaska or Texas? · Alaska | 0.320 | 0.275 | $4.17 | −$0.68 |
| Will Trump meet with Javier Milei by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.140 | $2.90 | −$2.07 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the SC-06 House seat? · No | 0.280 | 0.041 | $0.71 | −$4.15 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$36.34at 0.452LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs BIG - Game 2 Winner
- +$35.00at 0.100Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31?
- +$33.63at 0.704Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET
- +$29.47at 0.504Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?
- +$22.63at 0.181Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 20:59 | Will GPT Astra's output price be at or above $60 in 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $4.93 |
| 10-05 20:35 | Will GPT Astra's output price be at or above $60 in 2026? | SELL | 0.54 | $0.53 |
| 10-05 20:35 | Will GPT Astra's output price be at or above $60 in 2026? | BUY | 0.6199999874 | $4.91 |
| 10-05 14:29 | Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.85 | $6.76 |
| 10-01 14:04 | Will Trump meet with Javier Milei by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999923 | $4.97 |
| 10-01 10:33 | Will a transfer restriction on Manchester City be applied by the 2027 summer transfer window? | BUY | 0.3899999823 | $4.85 |
| 10-01 10:16 | Arizona passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting? | SELL | 0.4 | $7.17 |
| 10-01 08:48 | Arizona passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting? | BUY | 0.2699999989 | $4.84 |
| 10-01 08:28 | Hasan Piker arrested in 2026? | SELL | 0.752 | $0.40 |
| 10-01 07:45 | Hasan Piker arrested in 2026? | SELL | 0.7 | $4.63 |
| 09-30 17:43 | Hasan Piker arrested in 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999316 | $4.94 |
| 09-30 12:44 | Closer Senate Race: Alaska or Texas? | BUY | 0.32 | $4.85 |
| 09-30 12:40 | Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.6199999925 | $4.93 |
| 07-04 08:17 | Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026? | SELL | 0.67 | $0.43 |
| 06-20 15:01 | Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | BUY | 0.2379999742 | $4.97 |