0xdd6f913c9f8304605657ca1a3f1b2152faed8f09
0xdd6f913c9f8304605657ca1a3f1b2152faed8f09
- Realised P&L
- $-1.79
- Volume
- $152.62
- Markets traded
- 50
- Open portfolio
- $1.94
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded50
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration10.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample48 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Meta (META) close at $730-$740 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 12 – Oct 16? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.240 | $1.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision? · Yes | 0.499 | 0.468 | $0.94 | −$0.06 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.91at 0.770Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
- +$2.00at 0.341Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?
- +$1.91at 0.490Will Trump say "Sleepy" during White House Correspondents Dinner?
- +$1.91at 0.351Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September?
- +$1.83at 0.359Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 03:56 | Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision? | BUY | 0.498999755 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 18:20 | Will Meta (META) close at $730-$740 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 12 – Oct 16? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 09:23 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 15? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 01:07 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | BUY | 0.4899998383 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 15:55 | Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 07:47 | Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.9% and 1.0% over the 12 month period ending in September 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 23:47 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 15:47 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 12? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 19:35 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 19:22 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 11:06 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in September? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 01:50 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 17:44 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.4509999797 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 09:40 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 09:39 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in September? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |