madmartigan5
0xdd153625e111a496d372dfb7d7a69d4330324a07
- Realised P&L
- $9.5k
- Volume
- $1.49M
- Markets traded
- 224
- Open portfolio
- $25.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded224
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$23.0kat 0.015Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?
- +$13.4kat 0.372Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?
- +$3.1kat 0.342Will Finland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?
- +$2.3kat 0.210Will Norway be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?
- +$2.1kat 0.136Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 20:21 | Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $475.48 |
| 09-16 19:07 | Will Christian Democrats (KD) win between 5% and 7% of all valid votes? | SELL | 0.9811674718 | $434.66 |
| 09-16 11:53 | Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.0558641116 | $110.87 |
| 09-16 11:46 | Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.0528638249 | $221.40 |
| 09-16 10:44 | Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.0934421596 | $335.08 |
| 09-16 10:44 | Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.0928807772 | $809.24 |
| 09-16 10:44 | Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.0793586165 | $50.04 |
| 09-16 10:42 | Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.0872058917 | $1.6k |
| 09-16 10:38 | Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.0812370167 | $223.45 |
| 09-16 10:38 | Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.0912662631 | $834.42 |
| 09-16 09:16 | Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.0945823642 | $48.63 |
| 09-16 09:15 | Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.0871338263 | $175.22 |
| 09-16 09:15 | Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.0801817091 | $512.76 |
| 09-15 18:43 | Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.35 | $638.38 |
| 09-15 18:43 | Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.35 | $25.39 |