refuri
0xdce7b82e559f649b703765f52c0d49724e9ef553
- Realised P&L
- $-1.8k
- Volume
- $397.8k
- Markets traded
- 162
- Open portfolio
- $28.42
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded162
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)18.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be less than $4.00T at the end of 2026? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.060 | $13.38 | −$11.06 |
| Will Apple’s market capitalization be less than $3.50T at the end of 2026? · Yes | 0.126 | 0.057 | $10.86 | −$13.14 |
| Will Amazon’s market capitalization be less than $2.00T at the end of 2026? · Yes | 0.104 | 0.062 | $4.17 | −$2.83 |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$68.00 |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.00 |
| Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.7%? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.00 |
| Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be 4.6%? · Yes | 0.011 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$134.13at 0.033Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting?
- +$53.67at 0.240Will Costco Wholesale (COST) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?
- +$22.56at 0.035Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?
- +$20.95at 0.902Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
- +$19.76at 0.007Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-12 19:02 | Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be less than $4.00T at the end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0797244087 | $5.00 |
| 09-06 17:21 | Will Apple’s market capitalization be less than $3.50T at the end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0899999804 | $4.00 |
| 08-28 19:00 | Will Amazon’s market capitalization be less than $2.00T at the end of 2026? | BUY | 0.104 | $7.00 |
| 08-28 18:59 | Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be less than $4.00T at the end of 2026? | BUY | 0.12 | $1.44 |
| 08-28 18:58 | Will Apple’s market capitalization be less than $3.50T at the end of 2026? | BUY | 0.1353965082 | $10.00 |
| 08-28 18:55 | GTA 6 launch postponed again? | SELL | 0.06 | $3.33 |
| 08-22 13:37 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026? | SELL | 0.012592 | $0.79 |
| 08-22 13:36 | GTA 6 launch postponed again? | BUY | 0.0899999845 | $5.00 |
| 08-22 13:35 | Will Apple’s market capitalization be less than $3.50T at the end of 2026? | BUY | 0.1383124531 | $10.00 |
| 08-22 10:14 | Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be less than $4.00T at the end of 2026? | BUY | 0.1354838523 | $6.00 |
| 08-21 17:49 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026? | BUY | 0.016 | $1.00 |
| 08-21 17:47 | Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be less than $4.00T at the end of 2026? | BUY | 0.1173834759 | $12.00 |
| 07-02 12:38 | Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.004 | $0.56 |
| 07-02 12:38 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.25% at the end of 2026? | SELL | 0.0048535023 | $3.93 |
| 07-02 12:38 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026? | SELL | 0.0165676669 | $16.68 |