0xdccf14d4c5eb10b56b232038ae2a69ef124cf62d
- Realised P&L
- $-136.27
- Volume
- $14.8k
- Markets traded
- 127
- Open portfolio
- $3.67
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded127
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)24.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed rate hike in 2026? · Yes | 0.450 | 1.000 | $2.22 | +$1.22 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.083 | 0.039 | $0.47 | −$0.53 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.164 | 0.075 | $0.46 | −$0.54 |
| OPEC dissolves in 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.038 | $0.39 | −$0.61 |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.080 | $0.13 | −$0.87 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$23.86at 0.574Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10AM ET
- +$17.29at 0.366Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
- +$14.60at 0.535Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12AM ET
- +$12.99at 0.531Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9PM ET
- +$12.02at 0.530Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-12 09:04 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.3849999888 | $8.08 |
| 07-12 09:03 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1899999569 | $3.00 |
| 07-12 09:03 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.199 | $2.57 |
| 07-12 09:03 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.189 | $9.49 |
| 07-08 06:39 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1869999667 | $3.78 |
| 07-08 06:38 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1869999642 | $3.83 |
| 07-08 06:38 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.328 | $6.56 |
| 06-05 11:10 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | BUY | 0.3299997822 | $1.00 |
| 06-01 10:57 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 05-30 14:47 | Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | SELL | 0.47 | $2.66 |
| 05-30 14:46 | Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | SELL | 0.53 | $5.05 |
| 05-23 07:21 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.4499997975 | $1.00 |
| 05-13 18:13 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 05-06 12:13 | Will Trump visit China by May 15? | BUY | 0.0919688226 | $4.00 |
| 05-06 12:11 | Will Trump visit China by May 15? | BUY | 0.0899999845 | $5.00 |