0xdC794a39bC89882e7e3Ce813ff1e8b3a40a2021d-1769628192828
0xdc794a39bc89882e7e3ce813ff1e8b3a40a2021d
- Realised P&L
- $204.14
- Volume
- $2.1k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $123.03
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar9.7%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration89.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration91.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.325 | $112.07 | +$12.07 |
| Will Manchester City be stripped of a Premier League title by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.230 | $8.21 | −$1.79 |
| Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.055 | $2.75 | −$10.75 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$203.59at 0.325US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$15.69at 0.290US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
- +$7.81at 0.537Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
- +$-5.00at 0.230US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?
- +$-7.94at 0.052Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-30 21:26 | Will Manchester City be stripped of a Premier League title by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.2799999978 | $10.00 |
| 09-07 20:44 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.2899999993 | $100.00 |
| 05-30 18:55 | Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | SELL | 0.75 | $28.30 |
| 05-30 15:27 | Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | BUY | 0.5299999883 | $20.00 |
| 05-16 19:49 | Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.0783224448 | $20.64 |
| 05-05 16:33 | Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.0349999935 | $5.00 |
| 05-03 11:25 | Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.044 | $2.29 |
| 03-10 18:06 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | BUY | 0.3099999836 | $10.00 |
| 03-08 22:04 | Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.0595178996 | $10.00 |
| 03-07 20:05 | Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.0608687363 | $10.00 |
| 02-28 07:23 | US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | SELL | 0.986 | $303.58 |
| 02-18 22:17 | US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.1899999726 | $5.00 |
| 02-18 21:49 | US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999692 | $5.00 |
| 02-18 21:44 | US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $15.00 |
| 02-18 19:08 | US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.5181312618 | $35.68 |