0xdC17961132CbE21A95BE99287AE08E4a1681c4AB-1773261094450
0xdc17961132cbe21a95be99287ae08e4a1681c4ab
- Realised P&L
- $-494.24
- Volume
- $65.8k
- Markets traded
- 716
- Open portfolio
- $15.90
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded716
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on November 2? · No | 0.984 | 1.000 | $8.75 | +$0.14 |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? · No | 0.850 | 0.965 | $5.67 | +$0.67 |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.002 | $0.75 | −$0.25 |
| Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin before 2027? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.043 | $0.41 | −$0.17 |
| Will the Republican Party win the CA-01 House seat? · Yes | 0.067 | 0.033 | $0.32 | −$0.33 |
| Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.015 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Panthers vs. Packers: O/U 48.5 · Over | 0.440 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.53 |
| Northwestern vs. Oregon · Northwestern | 0.620 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.96 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$50.50at 0.090Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?
- +$15.22at 0.232Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 19?
- +$13.84at 0.604US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$13.51at 0.270Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
- +$13.39at 0.427San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 10:09 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on November 2? | BUY | 0.984 | $8.61 |
| 11-01 11:11 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on November 1? | BUY | 0.78 | $3.90 |
| 11-01 00:38 | Ohio State vs. USC | BUY | 0.65 | $5.46 |
| 10-31 21:06 | Northwestern vs. Oregon | BUY | 0.62 | $4.96 |
| 10-31 03:00 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.28 | $2.50 |
| 10-30 06:42 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on October 30? | BUY | 0.73 | $7.30 |
| 10-30 00:07 | Panthers vs. Packers: O/U 48.5 | BUY | 0.44 | $2.53 |
| 10-29 10:23 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on October 29? | BUY | 0.9390010541 | $4.70 |
| 10-28 19:32 | Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.00 |
| 10-24 23:45 | Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least $21M? | BUY | 0.9 | $9.99 |
| 10-10 13:29 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on October 10? | BUY | 0.66 | $3.96 |
| 10-10 08:56 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on October 10? | BUY | 0.978 | $4.89 |
| 10-08 11:16 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on October 8? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 11:22 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.0149999999 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 11:22 | Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |