tjdlps
0xdc09c0fdf3e8b550faaaa96e0e7c74ef938a9024
- Realised P&L
- $60.2k
- Volume
- $6.57M
- Markets traded
- 326
- Open portfolio
- $4.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded326
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration44.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration77.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$40.9kat 0.062Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?
- +$30.2kat 0.916US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$20.0kat 0.788Starmer out by February 28, 2026?
- +$10.4kat 0.043Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026?
- +$6.9kat 0.042Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-19 07:23 | US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.31 | $142.70 |
| 02-18 22:04 | Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? | BUY | 0.56 | $16.80 |
| 02-18 20:59 | US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.26 | $12.56 |
| 02-18 20:35 | US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.26 | $105.71 |
| 02-18 19:54 | US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.33 | $60.34 |
| 02-18 19:24 | Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? | BUY | 0.47 | $14.78 |
| 02-18 19:16 | US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.26 | $478.70 |
| 02-18 19:14 | Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66? | BUY | 0.995 | $1.3k |
| 02-17 20:27 | Trump drops Powell investigation by February 28? | SELL | 0.19 | $24.62 |
| 02-17 20:21 | US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.38 | $121.13 |
| 02-17 13:55 | US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.61 | $4.0k |
| 02-17 13:54 | US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.61 | $67.10 |
| 02-17 13:54 | Starmer out by February 28, 2026? | SELL | 0.9664015296 | $3.1k |
| 02-17 13:53 | US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.61 | $60.57 |
| 02-17 13:52 | US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.61 | $44.5k |