0xdb48dbd0b687ab83cf41e769605d62fdf0b170d8
0xdb48dbd0b687ab83cf41e769605d62fdf0b170d8
- Realised P&L
- $-24.52
- Volume
- $1.4k
- Markets traded
- 54
- Open portfolio
- $2.56
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded54
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample45 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by December 31? · Yes | 0.770 | 0.890 | $1.16 | +$0.16 |
| Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.275 | $0.72 | −$0.28 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.045 | $0.41 | −$0.59 |
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.041 | $0.17 | −$1.83 |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.017 | $0.10 | −$1.90 |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on August 28? · Up | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET · Up | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET · Up | 0.169 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET · Up | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.90at 0.155Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$2.22at 0.316Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET
- +$2.09at 0.499US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
- +$2.00at 0.699Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026?
- +$1.48at 0.350Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 10:16 | Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by December 31? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 13:55 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 13:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 13:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 13:51 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 13:50 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET | SELL | 0.999 | $3.44 |
| 09-16 13:45 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET | BUY | 0.2899999884 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 13:45 | Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? | SELL | 0.89 | $1.01 |
| 08-28 04:05 | Bitcoin Up or Down on August 28? | BUY | 0.379999962 | $3.00 |
| 08-27 13:31 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET | BUY | 0.25 | $2.00 |
| 08-21 14:22 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August? | BUY | 0.5749997341 | $2.00 |
| 08-19 23:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET | BUY | 0.55 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 16:03 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 5? | BUY | 0.0729999331 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 16:02 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on August 4? | BUY | 0.2199998548 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 16:00 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET | BUY | 0.3899998479 | $1.00 |