Arbgod-himself
0xdabd4df1cc941e552b44f0c2e5f929b4851e6ada
- Realised P&L
- $-34.6k
- Volume
- $2.11M
- Markets traded
- 3,560
- Open portfolio
- $270.56
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded3,560
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration32.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration70.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.3kat 0.263Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?
- +$6.3kat 0.135Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?
- +$4.2kat 0.659Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?
- +$4.2kat 0.781Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?
- +$3.1kat 0.245Will France win on 2026-06-04?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-29 14:03 | OpenAI IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.035 | $5.44 |
| 09-19 13:52 | Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.79 | $107.44 |
| 09-08 13:51 | Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.06 | $1.36 |
| 09-08 13:51 | Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.93 | $93.93 |
| 08-29 17:09 | US recession by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.07 | $8.90 |
| 08-29 17:09 | Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.957 | $363.58 |
| 08-29 17:09 | Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.034 | $5.34 |
| 08-29 16:59 | Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.9668505738 | $367.33 |
| 08-29 16:59 | Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.957 | $1.97 |
| 08-29 16:59 | Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0428194082 | $6.73 |
| 08-29 16:59 | Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.0370709739 | $3.90 |
| 08-29 16:58 | Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.007715 | $1.54 |
| 08-29 16:57 | US recession by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $10.17 |
| 08-29 16:57 | US recession by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.07 | $11.93 |
| 08-28 19:33 | SpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down on August 28? | BUY | 0.58 | $1.16 |