PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Arbgod-himself

0xdabd4df1cc941e552b44f0c2e5f929b4851e6ada

Realised P&L
$-34.6k
Volume
$2.11M
Markets traded
3,560
Open portfolio
$270.56

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded3,560
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
CautionProfit concentration32.5% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration70.5% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch? · No0.9590.933$190.86−$5.24
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? · Yes0.3690.685$75.39+$34.76
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? · No0.7610.865$4.31+$0.52
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET · Up0.0900.000$0.00−$0.78
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 · Over0.3800.000$0.00−$5.18
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 · Under0.4680.000$0.00−$645.79
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners · Over0.2260.000$0.00−$4.07
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score · No0.4940.000$0.00−$8.50
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? · Yes0.0100.000$0.00−$1.43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET · Up0.5250.000$0.00−$1.42
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET · Up0.1150.000$0.00−$5.05
Will Tesla dip to $353 in March? · No0.5250.000$0.00−$6.15
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET · Down0.5410.000$0.00−$158.56
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? · Yes0.2000.000$0.00−$1.40
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) · Netherlands0.0500.000$0.00−$8.95

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-29 14:03OpenAI IPO before 2027?SELL0.035$5.44
09-19 13:52Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?SELL0.79$107.44
09-08 13:51Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?SELL0.06$1.36
09-08 13:51Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?SELL0.93$93.93
08-29 17:09US recession by end of 2026?SELL0.07$8.90
08-29 17:09Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?SELL0.957$363.58
08-29 17:09Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?SELL0.034$5.34
08-29 16:59Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?BUY0.9668505738$367.33
08-29 16:59Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?SELL0.957$1.97
08-29 16:59Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?BUY0.0428194082$6.73
08-29 16:59Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?SELL0.0370709739$3.90
08-29 16:58Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?SELL0.007715$1.54
08-29 16:57US recession by end of 2026?BUY0.08$10.17
08-29 16:57US recession by end of 2026?SELL0.07$11.93
08-28 19:33SpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down on August 28?BUY0.58$1.16