Papi545
0xda9c7f8bffa4276f1fc687e74c6fd233d3f21403
- Realised P&L
- $-29.73
- Volume
- $2.7k
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $88.26
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration96.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.055 | $88.26 | −$40.61 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.70at 0.880Will Trump say "America" or "American" 15+ times during Iowa speech?
- +$0.09at 0.052Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
- +$-0.01at 0.981Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?
- +$-0.17at 0.120Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31?
- +$-1.07at 0.140Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-28 14:34 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0489999997 | $5.00 |
| 10-28 14:33 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.05 | $5.12 |
| 10-16 16:05 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.0699999999 | $57.90 |
| 09-22 16:58 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.09 | $79.20 |
| 02-01 10:40 | Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31? | SELL | 0.1 | $0.83 |
| 02-01 10:40 | Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? | SELL | 0.057 | $1.09 |
| 02-01 10:40 | Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.978 | $2.98 |
| 02-01 10:40 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | SELL | 0.11 | $3.93 |
| 02-01 10:40 | Will Drake be the top artist for 2026? | SELL | 0.13 | $3.14 |
| 02-01 10:40 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.12 | $26.03 |
| 01-27 23:31 | Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9809999961 | $3.00 |
| 01-27 23:30 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.1299999951 | $20.00 |
| 01-27 23:27 | Will Trump say "America" or "American" 15+ times during Iowa speech? | SELL | 0.999 | $22.70 |
| 01-27 23:26 | Will Trump say "China" or "Russia" 15+ times during Iowa speech? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.05 |
| 01-26 23:39 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.1399999627 | $3.00 |