pretzel
0xda737a656dd487c3ba95d6577d1fec2c61414d41
- Realised P&L
- $11.5k
- Volume
- $3.38M
- Markets traded
- 157
- Open portfolio
- $4.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded157
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.2kat 0.500Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?
- +$5.2kat 0.646Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?
- +$4.5kat 0.549Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?
- +$4.2kat 0.970Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
- +$1.5kat 0.500August temperature increase greater than 1.29°C?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-21 03:01 | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.17 | $1.6k |
| 08-21 03:01 | NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.081 | $946.33 |
| 08-20 23:40 | NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0788541886 | $1.1k |
| 08-20 23:39 | NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.07 | $0.59 |
| 08-15 19:06 | Will Trump say "No No No" this week? | BUY | 0.5780655281 | $182.43 |
| 08-10 21:33 | Anthony Fauci charged by December 31? | BUY | 0.3629095149 | $457.54 |
| 08-08 20:46 | Anthony Fauci charged by December 31? | BUY | 0.3906140848 | $703.64 |
| 08-07 09:05 | Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | BUY | 0.5047838186 | $2.5k |
| 08-02 11:53 | Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan? | BUY | 0.6978302054 | $788.27 |
| 07-31 10:03 | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 31? | BUY | 0.704 | $35.20 |
| 07-31 10:00 | NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.083 | $2.5k |
| 07-29 23:01 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? | BUY | 0.868523205 | $4.2k |
| 07-24 01:56 | Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call? | BUY | 0.1295390836 | $4.81 |
| 07-24 01:54 | Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call? | BUY | 0.1245 | $4.98 |
| 07-23 23:35 | Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call? | BUY | 0.4 | $509.66 |