xoua
0xda3f7aa664b2fbb9225b52d2eb8e3beff01bc282
- Realised P&L
- $-14.0k
- Volume
- $2.11M
- Markets traded
- 84
- Open portfolio
- $26.9k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded84
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration64.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? · No | 0.850 | 0.945 | $9.4k | +$950.00 |
| Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · No | 0.885 | 0.915 | $5.5k | +$178.67 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.630 | 0.860 | $4.3k | +$1.1k |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No | 0.797 | 0.960 | $3.4k | +$568.25 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.290 | $2.9k | −$100.00 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.555 | 0.610 | $1.1k | +$98.03 |
| Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · No | 0.853 | 0.931 | $272.78 | +$22.87 |
| Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? · No | 0.820 | 0.935 | $33.26 | +$4.09 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027? · No | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.0k |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? · No | 0.747 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$44.6k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$40.1kat 0.367Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$5.0kat 0.875Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?
- +$3.1kat 0.825Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
- +$2.6kat 0.622Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
- +$2.5kat 0.750Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-16 16:28 | Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.8797928162 | $1.3k |
| 07-16 16:28 | Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $109.26 |
| 05-16 18:04 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.63 | $151.19 |
| 05-15 20:15 | Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? | BUY | 0.82 | $29.17 |
| 05-11 08:30 | Will Trump visit China by May 15? | BUY | 0.007 | $7.00 |
| 05-10 18:03 | Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay | BUY | 0.79 | $15.80 |
| 05-08 19:15 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8239266218 | $3.9k |
| 05-08 19:11 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.4100365082 | $8.3k |
| 05-08 19:04 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.55 | $110.00 |
| 05-08 18:59 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6999533281 | $4.2k |
| 05-08 18:57 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.52 | $10.4k |
| 05-08 18:56 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.5 | $8.6k |
| 05-08 18:53 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.620323867 | $1.8k |
| 05-08 18:52 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.590106711 | $4.8k |
| 05-08 18:51 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.5622304603 | $5.6k |