xoua
0xda3f7aa664b2fbb9225b52d2eb8e3beff01bc282
- Realised P&L
- $-14.6k
- Volume
- $2.15M
- Markets traded
- 88
- Open portfolio
- $41.8k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded88
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration64.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.779 | 0.775 | $15.5k | −$91.92 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? · No | 0.890 | 0.885 | $8.9k | −$49.98 |
| Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · No | 0.885 | 0.925 | $5.6k | +$238.75 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.630 | 0.915 | $4.6k | +$1.4k |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.551 | 0.695 | $3.6k | +$738.22 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31? · No | 0.950 | 0.976 | $3.2k | +$83.82 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.055 | $550.00 | −$2.5k |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027? · No | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.0k |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET · Up | 0.228 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? · No | 0.747 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$44.6k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$40.1kat 0.367Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$5.0kat 0.875Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?
- +$3.1kat 0.825Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
- +$2.5kat 0.750Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
- +$2.4kat 0.894Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-05 10:02 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.9580876959 | $280.56 |
| 09-05 10:00 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | SELL | 0.965 | $3.4k |
| 09-05 06:58 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET | BUY | 0.2281822589 | $25.00 |
| 08-27 16:24 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.43 | $11.02 |
| 08-27 08:43 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.799157169 | $7.5k |
| 08-27 08:41 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.3839016777 | $9.84 |
| 07-16 16:28 | Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.8797928162 | $1.3k |
| 07-16 16:28 | Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $109.26 |
| 05-16 18:04 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.63 | $151.19 |
| 05-15 20:15 | Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? | BUY | 0.82 | $29.17 |
| 05-11 08:30 | Will Trump visit China by May 15? | BUY | 0.007 | $7.00 |
| 05-10 18:03 | Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo | BUY | 0.79 | $15.80 |
| 05-08 19:15 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8239266218 | $3.9k |
| 05-08 19:11 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.4100365082 | $8.3k |
| 05-08 19:04 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.55 | $110.00 |