PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

xoua

0xda3f7aa664b2fbb9225b52d2eb8e3beff01bc282

Realised P&L
$-14.0k
Volume
$2.11M
Markets traded
84
Open portfolio
$26.9k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded84
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration64.8% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration35.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? · No0.8500.945$9.4k+$950.00
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · No0.8850.915$5.5k+$178.67
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? · No0.6300.860$4.3k+$1.1k
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No0.7970.960$3.4k+$568.25
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.3000.290$2.9k$100.00
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.5550.610$1.1k+$98.03
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · No0.8530.931$272.78+$22.87
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? · No0.8200.935$33.26+$4.09
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027? · No0.3000.000$0.00$3.0k
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? · No0.7470.000$0.00$44.6k

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-16 16:28Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?BUY0.8797928162$1.3k
07-16 16:28Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?BUY0.85$109.26
05-16 18:04Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?BUY0.63$151.19
05-15 20:15Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?BUY0.82$29.17
05-11 08:30Will Trump visit China by May 15?BUY0.007$7.00
05-10 18:03Russia x Ukraine Peace ParlayBUY0.79$15.80
05-08 19:15Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?BUY0.8239266218$3.9k
05-08 19:11Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?SELL0.4100365082$8.3k
05-08 19:04Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?BUY0.55$110.00
05-08 18:59Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?BUY0.6999533281$4.2k
05-08 18:57Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?SELL0.52$10.4k
05-08 18:56Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?SELL0.5$8.6k
05-08 18:53Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?SELL0.620323867$1.8k
05-08 18:52Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?SELL0.590106711$4.8k
05-08 18:51Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?SELL0.5622304603$5.6k