Burglarking
0xda0f0d3946338e2a2e4905e6cd9db79defe7d73d
- Realised P&L
- $29.85
- Volume
- $821.58
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $142.24
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration54.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? · Yes | 0.696 | 0.725 | $60.41 | +$2.41 |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30? · No | 0.760 | 0.755 | $39.74 | −$0.26 |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.743 | 0.720 | $29.09 | −$0.92 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? · Yes | 0.514 | 0.525 | $9.19 | +$0.19 |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.217 | 0.105 | $2.90 | −$3.10 |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.449 | 0.409 | $0.91 | −$0.09 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$18.27at 0.691Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?
- +$13.83at 0.830US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?
- +$0.94at 0.850NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.41at 0.830US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
- +$-2.67at 0.746Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 01:09 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $4.00 |
| 11-02 01:07 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? | BUY | 0.7199999942 | $20.00 |
| 11-02 01:06 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7426710069 | $30.00 |
| 11-02 01:06 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.7419639737 | $55.19 |
| 11-02 01:00 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.4489998976 | $1.00 |
| 11-02 01:00 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30? | BUY | 0.7599999992 | $40.00 |
| 11-02 00:59 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.87 | $40.93 |
| 10-30 12:20 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | BUY | 0.5099999776 | $5.00 |
| 10-30 12:20 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? | BUY | 0.7799999813 | $5.00 |
| 10-30 12:20 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | SELL | 0.916 | $4.41 |
| 10-29 09:45 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7399999186 | $4.00 |
| 10-29 09:44 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8499999915 | $5.00 |
| 10-29 09:42 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8499999915 | $35.00 |
| 10-29 09:40 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7399999871 | $40.00 |
| 10-29 09:39 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? | SELL | 0.994 | $83.82 |