NewFarmVille
0xd9e8ddcbf77093f253d3cf90e50bb79b9183602d
- Realised P&L
- $-6.12
- Volume
- $420.00
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $48.50
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration42.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)37.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump meet with Mark Carney by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.830 | 0.800 | $16.00 | −$0.60 |
| Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.465 | $9.30 | −$4.70 |
| Will Steve Hilton win Fresno County in the California governor race in 2026? · No | 0.370 | 0.365 | $7.30 | −$0.10 |
| Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.250 | $5.00 | −$0.40 |
| Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by December 31? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.230 | $4.60 | −$2.20 |
| Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.155 | $3.10 | −$0.90 |
| Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado by October 31? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.105 | $2.10 | −$0.90 |
| Cornell President out by October 31? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.055 | $1.10 | −$4.30 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.60at 0.470Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?
- +$0.40at 0.250Will MrBeast's next video get at least 45 million views on day 1?
- +$0.40at 0.530Will no live-action Gwen Stacy actor be chosen by end of 2027?
- +$0.00at 0.480No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?
- +$-0.60at 0.530Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-30 12:18 | Will Lula win between 41% and 44% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.295 | $5.90 |
| 09-30 12:18 | Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting? | SELL | 0.51 | $10.20 |