PeanutPeasent
0xd9e7c872bc25385a573ce06005d5599379215057
- Realised P&L
- $-74.44
- Volume
- $2.8k
- Markets traded
- 76
- Open portfolio
- $60.18
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded76
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample30 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$25.58at 0.190Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$25.20at 0.495US military action against Iran before July?
- +$10.59at 0.152Major cyberattack on Iran in June?
- +$8.34at 0.590Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?
- +$7.34at 0.290Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-21 08:16 | Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.349999965 | $6.00 |
| 08-21 08:16 | Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027? | SELL | 0.71 | $4.17 |
| 08-21 08:13 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.4279999873 | $5.00 |
| 08-21 08:12 | Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.0419999804 | $2.00 |
| 08-21 08:12 | Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.0599999724 | $2.00 |
| 08-20 07:39 | Will Anthropic's public ticker be $AAI? | BUY | 0.1809523163 | $2.00 |
| 08-20 07:36 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? | BUY | 0.0194563885 | $1.00 |
| 08-20 07:35 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3069999754 | $5.00 |
| 04-18 14:17 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? | BUY | 0.06 | $3.00 |
| 04-18 10:06 | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | BUY | 0.0070000001 | $1.00 |
| 04-16 21:58 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | BUY | 0.0899999736 | $3.00 |
| 04-16 21:56 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.289999985 | $11.00 |
| 03-15 05:24 | Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? | BUY | 0.2599999646 | $5.00 |
| 03-15 05:21 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.2739999364 | $3.00 |
| 03-15 05:20 | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.3399999633 | $5.00 |