0xd9a0f143ffa107f0dda60713be9530d8fc878438
0xd9a0f143ffa107f0dda60713be9530d8fc878438
- Realised P&L
- $-13.43
- Volume
- $112.01
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $5.39
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-12.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration32.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)53.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $182 in September? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.715 | $1.35 | +$0.35 |
| Will Elon tweet 800-839 times in September 2026? · No | 0.790 | 0.988 | $1.25 | +$0.25 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.815 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.055 | $0.95 | −$8.74 |
| Trump renames AI by September 30? · No | 0.750 | 0.615 | $0.82 | −$0.18 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.33at 0.808Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?
- +$1.19at 0.610Visa (V) Q2 payments volume growth (constant dollars) 8.5%-9.5%?
- +$1.03at 0.708Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?
- +$0.88at 0.671Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?
- +$0.64at 0.622Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 21:04 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 21:02 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $182 in September? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 12:46 | Trump renames AI by September 30? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 04:12 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $340 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 20:12 | Will Elon tweet 800-839 times in September 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 05:35 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.659999918 | $1.77 |
| 08-30 12:42 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6999999435 | $2.48 |
| 08-19 07:46 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.609999783 | $1.04 |
| 07-29 08:53 | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.4989999935 | $1.99 |
| 07-26 00:20 | Will CBRE Group (CBRE) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.55 |
| 07-25 00:19 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29? | BUY | 0.34 | $4.93 |
| 07-24 12:19 | Will Trump say "Shots fired" or "Shots will be fired" during White House Correspondents Dinner? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.62 |
| 07-23 00:18 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.299999982 | $10.00 |
| 07-22 12:15 | Visa (V) Q2 payments volume growth (constant dollars) 8.5%-9.5%? | BUY | 0.6 | $1.83 |
| 07-22 00:14 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |