0xd99c32e54329a0f4aec1f8fdd92a3b00b8827193
0xd99c32e54329a0f4aec1f8fdd92a3b00b8827193
- Realised P&L
- $-10.93
- Volume
- $77.99
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $2.42
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-14.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 2? · Up | 0.660 | 0.970 | $1.47 | +$0.47 |
| Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 Week of September 28 2026? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.505 | $0.72 | −$0.28 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.055 | $0.23 | −$1.36 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.45at 0.400SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 11?
- +$0.87at 0.649Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during remarks in New York?
- +$0.80at 0.560Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?
- +$0.76at 0.681Will Playboy (PLBY) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$0.74at 0.600Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 07:33 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 2? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 10:54 | Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 10:23 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 1? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 15:00 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 09-01 09:58 | Will Andy Burnham say "King" during the next PMQ? | BUY | 0.7089999349 | $1.59 |
| 08-18 16:43 | Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3799998996 | $1.59 |
| 08-17 20:37 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August? | BUY | 0.5899999783 | $1.09 |
| 08-17 12:31 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $360 Week of August 17 2026? | BUY | 0.6799999487 | $1.59 |
| 08-17 04:10 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $177 Week of August 17 2026? | BUY | 0.2199999142 | $1.59 |
| 08-16 19:18 | Will Home Depot (HD) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.8099999134 | $1.59 |
| 08-12 17:32 | Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during remarks in New York? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.59 |
| 08-12 09:24 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999045 | $1.59 |
| 08-12 01:24 | Will Trump say "Hottest" during remarks in New York? | BUY | 0.7899999851 | $1.59 |
| 08-11 15:00 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 11? | BUY | 0.6699999536 | $1.59 |
| 08-11 06:13 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 11? | BUY | 0.3899998577 | $1.59 |