0xd998e24447d0aedca15010ef7b3abe84f39e0eb2
0xd998e24447d0aedca15010ef7b3abe84f39e0eb2
- Realised P&L
- $-8.12
- Volume
- $11.1k
- Markets traded
- 79
- Open portfolio
- $106.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded79
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027? · Yes | 0.412 | 0.395 | $60.04 | −$2.62 |
| Will Microsoft launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027? · Yes | 0.591 | 0.340 | $34.68 | −$25.63 |
| Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026? · Yes | 0.476 | 0.470 | $11.28 | −$0.16 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET · Down | 0.920 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$48.81 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET · Down | 0.383 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$118.42 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$68.98at 0.617Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET
- +$45.27at 0.700Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET
- +$41.32at 0.755Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET
- +$38.43at 0.744Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET
- +$31.57at 0.813Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 01:59 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET | BUY | 0.95 | $47.50 |
| 10-09 01:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET | BUY | 0.8940550944 | $46.50 |
| 10-09 01:04 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET | BUY | 0.9 | $45.00 |
| 10-08 22:59 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET | BUY | 0.88 | $41.36 |
| 10-08 22:44 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET | BUY | 0.8319844333 | $39.10 |
| 10-08 21:19 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET | BUY | 0.86 | $30.96 |
| 10-08 16:29 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET | BUY | 0.3828855538 | $118.42 |
| 10-08 11:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET | BUY | 0.86 | $112.66 |
| 10-08 09:59 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET | BUY | 0.9 | $109.80 |
| 10-08 07:34 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET | BUY | 0.85 | $38.25 |
| 10-07 19:24 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET | BUY | 0.92 | $48.81 |
| 10-07 16:59 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET | BUY | 0.8949544002 | $117.90 |
| 10-07 16:54 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET | BUY | 0.96 | $9.60 |
| 10-07 16:29 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET | BUY | 0.8299999995 | $112.14 |
| 10-07 15:49 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET | SELL | 0.3216131077 | $50.74 |