Useless.
0xd98d8597a6296b4f6d530a9364869524ae34268d
- Realised P&L
- $-18.17
- Volume
- $1.6k
- Markets traded
- 47
- Open portfolio
- $0.03
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded47
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample45 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.002 | $0.03 | −$9.97 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 24? · No | 0.461 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET · Down | 0.902 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.79 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026? · No | 0.740 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.00 |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.82 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 24? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.82at 0.570Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 15?
- +$10.82at 0.480Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?
- +$7.38at 0.722Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?
- +$6.81at 0.688Will Iran strike Oman in March?
- +$6.17at 0.863Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 07:02 | Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | BUY | 0.459999988 | $10.00 |
| 10-02 14:46 | Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | BUY | 0.7899999905 | $10.00 |
| 03-02 12:26 | Will Iran strike Oman in March? | BUY | 0.6880000004 | $15.01 |
| 02-17 03:47 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026? | SELL | 0.951 | $10.00 |
| 02-16 17:14 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.8550432904 | $9.00 |
| 02-16 17:09 | Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22? | BUY | 0.5599999946 | $20.82 |
| 02-12 10:14 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET | BUY | 0.9 | $8.75 |
| 02-11 14:08 | Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026? | SELL | 0.959 | $8.78 |
| 02-11 12:50 | Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.9449999989 | $8.66 |
| 02-11 12:26 | Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026? | SELL | 0.675 | $8.66 |
| 02-11 12:20 | Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.6919999489 | $8.88 |
| 02-10 14:01 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? | SELL | 0.164 | $1.43 |
| 02-10 13:47 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.2989998445 | $1.00 |
| 02-10 13:45 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.3709999232 | $2.00 |
| 02-10 13:20 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? | SELL | 0.7315038488 | $10.45 |