0xd90bed03463b89e688d69c0cfe3abc59bae52441
0xd90bed03463b89e688d69c0cfe3abc59bae52441
- Realised P&L
- $-0.44
- Volume
- $221.48
- Markets traded
- 52
- Open portfolio
- $9.90
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded52
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample45 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)53.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration18.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.165 | $1.80 | −$0.49 |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $66 in September? · No | 0.580 | 0.951 | $1.64 | +$0.64 |
| Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $525 in September? · No | 0.420 | 0.675 | $1.61 | +$0.61 |
| Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.720 | 0.870 | $1.21 | +$0.21 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? · No | 0.750 | 0.835 | $1.11 | +$0.11 |
| Trump renames AI by September 30? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.335 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 in September? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.505 | $0.81 | −$0.19 |
| Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $72.50 Week of September 28 2026? · No | 0.390 | 0.285 | $0.73 | −$0.27 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.82at 0.288Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during September Press Conference?
- +$5.49at 0.300Will Andy Burnham say "King" during the next PMQ?
- +$3.38at 0.410S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 16?
- +$2.53at 0.480Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" during remarks in New York?
- +$2.20at 0.510US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 04:29 | Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $72.50 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 20:00 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $66 in September? | BUY | 0.5799999768 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 11:45 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $525 in September? | BUY | 0.4199998908 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 02:36 | Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 07:41 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.749999625 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 21:52 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 in September? | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 13:51 | Trump renames AI by September 30? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 03:48 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $65 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 19:43 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,050 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 11:11 | Will Trump say "Garden" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 03:08 | Will Trump say "Ballroom" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? | BUY | 0.7099999843 | $1.36 |
| 09-23 19:08 | Will Costco say "GLP-1" or "GLP 1" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.6599999942 | $2.29 |
| 09-23 11:06 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.6199998971 | $2.29 |
| 09-23 03:00 | Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $252 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.5999999476 | $2.29 |
| 09-21 06:46 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $110 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.7699999933 | $2.29 |