ArgentinaJamaica
0xd89536a70f7c97f8e7bc39da192938838e2e7004
- Realised P&L
- $-415.60
- Volume
- $21.5k
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $538.02
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? · No | 0.224 | 0.245 | $317.09 | +$27.47 |
| StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.170 | $198.94 | +$46.81 |
| Will Invictus Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? · Yes | 0.032 | 0.052 | $11.21 | +$4.38 |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.026 | $10.59 | −$25.40 |
| Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$28.35 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.18 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$127.31at 0.820Will Stable launch a token in 2025?
- +$106.72at 0.758Will Tempo launch a token by March 31, 2026?
- +$28.80at 0.760Will Imane Khelif (ALG) win Gold in Women’s 66kg Boxing at the 2024 Summer Olympics?
- +$26.11at 0.878Cerebras IPO before 2027?
- +$9.24at 0.612Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-07 07:08 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? | BUY | 0.0704333093 | $2.93 |
| 06-03 06:52 | Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.2089833955 | $123.34 |
| 06-03 06:39 | Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.2048140653 | $80.96 |
| 05-13 12:09 | Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.07 | $13.93 |
| 05-03 14:18 | Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.11 | $22.05 |
| 04-24 07:35 | StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.2513462295 | $38.33 |
| 04-18 13:59 | Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.24 | $20.27 |
| 04-13 07:28 | Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.29 | $27.19 |
| 04-11 06:46 | Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.29 | $37.85 |
| 04-04 11:05 | Cerebras IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.878 | $187.89 |
| 04-04 06:35 | StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.13 | $171.96 |
| 01-10 06:34 | Based FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.7295795656 | $361.46 |
| 01-09 14:15 | Will Invictus Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? | BUY | 0.032 | $6.83 |
| 01-09 13:54 | Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.21 | $6.30 |
| 01-09 13:11 | Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.21 | $22.05 |