0xd83e3e3c60ef7ac5e05a7a9ee136e422b2e3bf34
- Realised P&L
- not known
- Volume
- not known
- Markets traded
- 31
- Open portfolio
- $7.41
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- Not knownEdge per dollar—
- No leaderboard entry for this wallet in the requested window.
- ClearMarkets traded31
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration80.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample24 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)16.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gwendolyn Beck be confirmed to be the sender of the “I beat Bush” email to Epstein in 2026? · Yes | 0.211 | 0.061 | $2.00 | −$4.84 |
| Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.036 | $1.66 | −$3.34 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto · Something | 0.090 | 0.029 | $1.64 | −$3.36 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.045 | $0.90 | −$4.10 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.119 | 0.019 | $0.82 | −$4.18 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.035 | $0.22 | −$0.78 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.032 | $0.17 | −$0.82 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$50.50at 0.086Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
- +$6.12at 0.014Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
- +$3.06at 0.620Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$2.94at 0.630Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
- +$-0.67at 0.150NATO article 5 before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-19 21:42 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.00 |
| 03-19 21:40 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.1799998704 | $1.00 |
| 03-19 04:44 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? | BUY | 0.3753901806 | $5.00 |
| 03-18 13:28 | Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.0289999724 | $1.00 |
| 03-16 10:12 | Netanyahu out by June 30? | BUY | 0.1399999888 | $10.00 |
| 03-14 17:08 | NATO article 5 before 2027? | SELL | 0.13 | $4.33 |
| 03-14 00:50 | Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.0103383459 | $1.00 |
| 03-13 23:55 | Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027? | SELL | 0.0266214911 | $3.80 |
| 03-13 23:55 | Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027? | SELL | 0.0262160138 | $3.64 |
| 03-13 23:51 | Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? | BUY | 0.3399999649 | $3.49 |
| 03-13 23:51 | Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? | BUY | 0.3367269808 | $5.00 |
| 03-12 18:20 | Netanyahu out by March 31? | BUY | 0.0928134372 | $10.00 |
| 03-12 17:30 | NATO article 5 before 2027? | BUY | 0.149999976 | $5.00 |
| 03-12 17:26 | Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027? | BUY | 0.0349999935 | $5.00 |
| 03-12 17:26 | Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027? | BUY | 0.0359999933 | $5.00 |