ichris
0xd824b8bf5805302e0d477aca87dd6c15effb528b
- Realised P&L
- $593.42
- Volume
- $139.5k
- Markets traded
- 136
- Open portfolio
- $744.18
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded136
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration49.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration74.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? · No | 0.810 | 0.955 | $551.99 | +$83.81 |
| Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.813 | 0.175 | $173.75 | −$631.13 |
| Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? · OpenAI | 0.340 | 0.061 | $18.45 | −$83.55 |
| Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.16 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.5kat 0.300Will 1. FC Slovácko win on 2026-04-11?
- +$274.96at 0.530Will Trump say "Two weeks" this week? (April 12)
- +$265.28at 0.320Will CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia end in a draw?
- +$185.71at 0.621Will DoorDash report 900 million or more total orders in Q4 2025?
- +$185.69at 0.340Will T1 qualify to MSI 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-23 14:16 | Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.81 | $468.18 |
| 04-23 13:27 | Will Millonarios FC vs. CD Tolima end in a draw? | BUY | 0.74 | $460.28 |
| 04-21 08:41 | Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027? | SELL | 0.89 | $27.59 |
| 04-21 08:41 | Will North West release an album by December 31? | SELL | 0.25 | $52.75 |
| 04-21 08:26 | Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.14 | $0.84 |
| 04-21 03:19 | Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.15 | $6.00 |
| 04-13 16:26 | Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027? | SELL | 0.88 | $250.80 |
| 04-13 14:27 | Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027? | BUY | 0.87 | $274.92 |
| 04-13 13:43 | Portsmouth FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.75 | $442.50 |
| 04-13 05:07 | Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on December 31? | SELL | 0.46 | $56.58 |
| 04-13 04:42 | Databricks IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.82 | $275.52 |
| 04-13 04:40 | Databricks IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.82 | $269.78 |
| 04-13 04:11 | Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? | SELL | 0.59 | $195.29 |
| 04-13 04:10 | Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? | SELL | 0.59 | $90.86 |
| 04-12 22:25 | Will Starmer say "BMA" or "British Medical Association" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | SELL | 0.47 | $37.60 |