0xd823721597A464008050819ECC2d6C2c43E512fE-1782111812111
0xd823721597a464008050819ecc2d6c2c43e512fe
- Realised P&L
- $-313.47
- Volume
- $94.5k
- Markets traded
- 3,142
- Open portfolio
- $198.27
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded3,142
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration16.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration3.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.80at 0.420Chicago Fire FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 2.5
- +$5.29at 0.610Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-07-16?
- +$4.55at 0.340Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
- +$4.40at 0.120Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?
- +$4.35at 0.684Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 05:46 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts Senate election by 30%-35%? | SELL | 0.88 | $7.52 |
| 09-10 10:32 | Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.12 | $0.84 |
| 09-07 18:46 | Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.45 | $4.16 |
| 09-05 22:52 | Google x SpaceX agree to put data centers in space by December 31? | SELL | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 09-04 02:12 | Will the Republican Party win the NC-07 House seat? | SELL | 0.83 | $4.15 |
| 09-02 13:22 | Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.48 | $3.35 |
| 09-02 05:46 | Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 NL East title? | SELL | 0.26 | $2.60 |
| 09-01 14:44 | Will Wellington Fagundes win the 2026 Mato Grosso gubernatorial election? | SELL | 0.6 | $6.00 |
| 08-31 21:00 | Will Moderate Party (M) win between 16% and 18% of all valid votes? | SELL | 0.58 | $5.13 |
| 08-31 20:50 | Will Apple’s market capitalization be between $4.00T and $4.50T at the end of 2026? | SELL | 0.79 | $3.95 |
| 08-31 10:41 | Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? | SELL | 0.07 | $0.70 |
| 08-30 16:30 | Will Predict.fun launch a token by March 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.57 | $4.06 |
| 08-30 16:02 | Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? | SELL | 0.79 | $7.90 |
| 08-29 16:46 | Spread: Raiders (-3.5) | SELL | 0.48 | $4.80 |
| 08-29 13:32 | Will Alaska have the closest Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.87 | $7.93 |