tdrhrhhd
0xd7f85d0eb0fe0732ca38d9107ad0d4d01b1289e4
- Realised P&L
- $2.45M
- Volume
- $15.66M
- Markets traded
- 68
- Open portfolio
- $52.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar15.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded68
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration78.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration84.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · No | 0.270 | 0.365 | $44.3k | +$11.6k |
| Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay · Yes | 0.242 | 0.095 | $3.2k | −$5.0k |
| Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.003 | $2.5k | −$4.5k |
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.306 | 0.296 | $1.6k | −$50.28 |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.009 | $879.24 | +$138.83 |
| Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.004 | $0.02 | −$0.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.46Mat 0.567Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$601.1kat 0.415Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$329.2kat 0.298Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
- +$80.3kat 0.554Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?
- +$57.3kat 0.3732024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-23 13:33 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.44 | $2.8k |
| 07-02 13:33 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.096 | $25.22 |
| 07-02 13:33 | Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.018 | $51.83 |
| 07-02 13:32 | Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay | SELL | 0.14 | $35.17 |
| 06-24 11:26 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | SELL | 0.5291398727 | $713.25 |
| 06-24 11:25 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | SELL | 0.5534808737 | $4.5k |
| 06-24 11:05 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | SELL | 0.57 | $8.0k |
| 06-24 11:04 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | SELL | 0.5825886794 | $10.3k |
| 06-22 02:22 | Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.0200882009 | $23.18 |
| 06-14 02:11 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | SELL | 0.4055829467 | $3.9k |
| 06-14 02:10 | Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.0302308999 | $17.62 |
| 06-14 02:10 | Netanyahu out by June 30? | SELL | 0.011 | $53.48 |
| 06-14 02:09 | Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.008 | $1.3k |
| 06-14 02:09 | Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.01 | $24.52 |
| 06-14 02:09 | Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0128897535 | $341.61 |