Arbitruum
0xd79ce2469b0cdf35ab55debdf329967cd63d3bef
- Realised P&L
- $11.06
- Volume
- $4.2k
- Markets traded
- 58
- Open portfolio
- $24.89
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded58
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? · No | 0.999 | 0.996 | $24.89 | −$0.09 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.43at 0.953Bitcoin Up or Down on April 10?
- +$1.26at 0.986Yoon arrested by Friday?
- +$1.14at 0.960First to 5k: Gold or ETH?
- +$0.92at 0.973Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026?
- +$0.76at 0.978Next US strike on Syria on December 14?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 08:04 | Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | BUY | 0.999 | $24.98 |
| 09-11 02:38 | Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $700 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $31.94 |
| 08-17 07:56 | Will XRP reach $3.00 in August? | BUY | 0.999 | $34.97 |
| 07-15 02:49 | Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $94.91 |
| 06-29 06:23 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | BUY | 0.998 | $63.87 |
| 06-14 03:10 | Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $69.79 |
| 05-22 06:37 | Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $76.85 |
| 05-05 01:00 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $69.93 |
| 05-05 00:58 | Billions FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.995 | $57.71 |
| 04-14 08:14 | Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.993 | $42.95 |
| 03-12 16:05 | Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.973 | $33.08 |
| 02-28 09:04 | Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)? | BUY | 0.994 | $67.89 |
| 02-14 14:20 | Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 16 above $20? | BUY | 0.999 | $68.90 |
| 01-23 09:09 | Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25? | BUY | 0.998 | $39.92 |
| 12-14 12:14 | Next US strike on Syria on December 14? | BUY | 0.9779999804 | $33.77 |