0xd758F1e4E3783022ed8EaD026213E8cdA264Df71-1767878417382
0xd758f1e4e3783022ed8ead026213e8cda264df71
- Realised P&L
- $-157.28
- Volume
- $2.5k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $29.21
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration91.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? · Yes | 0.548 | 0.230 | $8.40 | −$11.60 |
| Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.042 | $6.92 | −$8.08 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.055 | $6.11 | −$13.89 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.041 | $4.05 | −$10.95 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.041 | $3.74 | −$8.26 |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.206 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? · No | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31? · Yes | 0.059 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? · Yes | 0.161 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Ackman vs. S&P - January · S&P | 0.224 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET · Up | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$18.70 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$75.24at 0.210US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$4.17at 0.587Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in January 2026?
- +$2.65at 0.510Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?
- +$0.64at 0.110Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
- +$-5.67at 0.239Pelosi vs. S&P - January
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-28 20:28 | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | BUY | 0.5478087388 | $20.00 |
| 03-04 21:30 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.1609999939 | $20.00 |
| 02-28 16:38 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.1799999928 | $20.00 |
| 02-18 22:43 | US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999922 | $20.00 |
| 02-18 22:42 | Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? | SELL | 0.1135278588 | $20.64 |
| 01-25 22:41 | US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2056806975 | $20.00 |
| 01-23 20:11 | Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in January 2026? | SELL | 0.75 | $19.16 |
| 01-16 20:42 | Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET | BUY | 0.51 | $18.41 |
| 01-16 20:39 | Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.6 | $17.65 |
| 01-14 21:58 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.2299999893 | $15.00 |
| 01-14 20:58 | Pelosi vs. S&P - January | SELL | 0.171432843 | $14.33 |
| 01-11 12:39 | Pelosi vs. S&P - January | BUY | 0.239190425 | $20.00 |
| 01-11 12:38 | Ackman vs. S&P - January | BUY | 0.2243902372 | $20.00 |
| 01-09 23:19 | Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31? | BUY | 0.0585631164 | $20.00 |
| 01-09 23:11 | Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1m? | SELL | 0.4320746888 | $62.48 |