PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0xd758F1e4E3783022ed8EaD026213E8cdA264Df71-1767878417382

0xd758f1e4e3783022ed8ead026213e8cda264df71

Realised P&L
$-165.98
Volume
$2.5k
Markets traded
18
Open portfolio
$20.52

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-6.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded18
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
BlockerProfit concentration91.0% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample6 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration25.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes0.1800.046$5.17$14.83
US strike on Cuba by December 31? · Yes0.5480.140$5.11$14.89
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? · Yes0.0900.023$3.83$11.17
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes0.1300.038$3.55$8.45
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · Yes0.1500.029$2.85$12.15
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? · Yes0.2060.000$0.00$20.00
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? · No0.1900.000$0.00$50.00
Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31? · Yes0.0590.000$0.00$20.00
US forces enter Iran by March 31? · Yes0.2300.000$0.00$15.00
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? · Yes0.1610.000$0.00$20.00
Ackman vs. S&P - January · S&P0.2240.000$0.00$20.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET · Up0.5310.000$0.00$19.46

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
05-28 20:28US strike on Cuba by December 31?BUY0.5478087388$20.00
03-04 21:30Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?BUY0.1609999939$20.00
02-28 16:38Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?BUY0.1799999928$20.00
02-18 22:43US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?BUY0.2099999922$20.00
02-18 22:42Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?SELL0.1135278588$20.64
01-25 22:41US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?BUY0.2056806975$20.00
01-23 20:11Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in January 2026?SELL0.75$19.16
01-16 20:42Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ETBUY0.51$18.41
01-16 20:39Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?SELL0.6$17.65
01-14 21:58US forces enter Iran by March 31?BUY0.2299999893$15.00
01-14 20:58Pelosi vs. S&P - JanuarySELL0.171432843$14.33
01-11 12:39Pelosi vs. S&P - JanuaryBUY0.239190425$20.00
01-11 12:38Ackman vs. S&P - JanuaryBUY0.2243902372$20.00
01-09 23:19Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31?BUY0.0585631164$20.00
01-09 23:11Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1m?SELL0.4320746888$62.48