0xd6d141f9cf5b5e1a57fde98ff0015b89cf09e8aa
0xd6d141f9cf5b5e1a57fde98ff0015b89cf09e8aa
- Realised P&L
- $-11.46
- Volume
- $145.92
- Markets traded
- 37
- Open portfolio
- $3.90
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded37
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample33 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)39.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.390 | $1.63 | +$0.63 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? · No | 0.780 | 0.997 | $1.28 | +$0.28 |
| Will the September 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.275 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.002 | $0.01 | −$1.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.01at 0.229Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$2.29at 0.472Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
- +$1.86at 0.470Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 10+ times during Michigan remarks?
- +$1.68at 0.379Will Costco say "GLP-1" or "GLP 1" during earnings call?
- +$1.25at 0.620Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-29 10:26 | Will the September 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 13:27 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 05:26 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 21:09 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 12:55 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 25? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 14:47 | Will Costco say "GLP-1" or "GLP 1" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 09-07 11:52 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 7 to September 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999286 | $2.00 |
| 08-16 20:37 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999286 | $2.00 |
| 08-12 10:06 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in July? | BUY | 0.4399999296 | $2.00 |
| 08-08 11:39 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $2.00 |
| 08-08 03:18 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.76 | $2.00 |
| 08-06 07:10 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.00 |
| 08-05 23:09 | Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%? | BUY | 0.5499999725 | $2.00 |
| 08-05 15:08 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.459999885 | $2.00 |
| 08-05 07:08 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 5? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.00 |