trader-d6d0c149
0xd6d0c14970be25f18de83e99290f0a60e0accc0a
- Realised P&L
- $823.04
- Volume
- $8.7k
- Markets traded
- 31
- Open portfolio
- $60.83
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar9.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded31
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration50.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample28 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration75.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 7? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.055 | $45.76 | −$4.07 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? · No | 0.515 | 0.820 | $12.50 | +$4.64 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? · Yes | 0.399 | 0.180 | $1.23 | −$1.49 |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? · No | 0.500 | 0.510 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$491.59at 0.272Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 25?
- +$237.00at 0.210Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET
- +$159.04at 0.100Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 25?
- +$49.69at 0.195Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan?
- +$25.58at 0.641Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-07 03:04 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.06 | $0.42 |
| 08-07 02:31 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET | BUY | 0.3299997822 | $1.00 |
| 08-07 02:31 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET | BUY | 0.3299997822 | $1.00 |
| 08-07 02:31 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET | BUY | 0.3299997822 | $1.00 |
| 08-07 02:16 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.05 | $0.83 |
| 08-07 01:56 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 08-07 01:43 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.06 | $0.48 |
| 08-07 01:24 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET | BUY | 0.6599999919 | $4.90 |
| 08-07 01:13 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.06 | $0.93 |
| 08-07 00:57 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET | BUY | 0.1799998704 | $1.00 |
| 08-07 00:57 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET | BUY | 0.2 | $1.00 |
| 08-07 00:57 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET | BUY | 0.1799998704 | $1.00 |
| 08-07 00:57 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET | BUY | 0.2 | $1.00 |
| 08-07 00:57 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET | BUY | 0.2 | $1.00 |
| 08-07 00:57 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET | BUY | 0.2 | $1.00 |