trader-d6d0c149
0xd6d0c14970be25f18de83e99290f0a60e0accc0a
- Realised P&L
- $1.9k
- Volume
- $71.5k
- Markets traded
- 115
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded115
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration61.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Choi-wan peak at severe tropical storm grade or weaker? · No | 0.951 | 0.982 | $1.1k | +$34.61 |
| Will the biggest earthquake on October 2, 2026 be 5.7 to 5.8? · Yes | 0.893 | 0.990 | $4.20 | +$0.41 |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? · No | 0.540 | 0.655 | $1.29 | +$0.23 |
| Will Choi-wan peak at severe tropical storm grade or weaker? · Yes | 0.052 | 0.018 | $0.49 | −$0.93 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$908.47at 0.169Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in Japan?
- +$673.15at 0.014Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 23?
- +$556.29at 0.031Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on August 23?
- +$491.46at 0.272Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 25?
- +$391.48at 0.129Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 21?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 23:57 | Will Choi-wan peak at severe tropical storm grade or weaker? | BUY | 0.052 | $1.43 |
| 10-02 22:23 | Will the biggest earthquake on October 2, 2026 be 5.7 to 5.8? | SELL | 0.0434185112 | $5.08 |
| 10-02 22:18 | Will the biggest earthquake on October 2, 2026 be 5.7 to 5.8? | SELL | 0.91 | $18.20 |
| 10-02 22:18 | Will the biggest earthquake on October 2, 2026 be 5.7 to 5.8? | BUY | 0.89 | $17.80 |
| 10-02 22:13 | Will the biggest earthquake on October 2, 2026 be 5.7 to 5.8? | SELL | 0.1 | $10.05 |
| 10-02 17:23 | Will Choi-wan peak at severe tropical storm grade or weaker? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.42 |
| 10-02 16:31 | Will Choi-wan peak at severe tropical storm grade or weaker? | SELL | 0.004 | $0.27 |
| 10-02 16:29 | Will Choi-wan peak at severe tropical storm grade or weaker? | BUY | 0.0683067431 | $14.78 |
| 10-02 16:27 | Will Choi-wan peak at severe tropical storm grade or weaker? | SELL | 0.01 | $2.98 |
| 10-02 16:24 | Will Choi-wan peak at severe tropical storm grade or weaker? | SELL | 0.05 | $0.50 |
| 10-02 16:24 | Will Choi-wan peak at severe tropical storm grade or weaker? | SELL | 0.952 | $9.52 |
| 10-02 16:20 | Will Choi-wan peak at severe tropical storm grade or weaker? | BUY | 0.069 | $20.53 |
| 10-02 16:20 | Will Choi-wan peak at severe tropical storm grade or weaker? | BUY | 0.069 | $20.55 |
| 10-02 16:20 | Will Choi-wan peak at severe tropical storm grade or weaker? | BUY | 0.069 | $20.55 |
| 10-02 06:44 | Will Choi-wan peak at severe tropical storm grade or weaker? | BUY | 0.25 | $46.84 |