violettakafourides
0xd6bf7c842cf97b30831b9f16dfc361ab4e71c7ac
- Realised P&L
- $1.5k
- Volume
- $152.6k
- Markets traded
- 449
- Open portfolio
- $2.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded449
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.500 | 0.779 | $1.2k | +$419.25 |
| Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? · No | 0.917 | 0.952 | $867.88 | +$31.75 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.221 | $330.75 | −$419.25 |
| Greek snap election scheduled in 2026? · Yes | 0.493 | 0.145 | $10.09 | −$24.22 |
| Will Alexis Tsipras be the next Prime Minister of Greece? · Yes | 0.053 | 0.068 | $2.70 | +$0.57 |
| Will María Jesús Montero be the next Prime Minister of Spain? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.002 | $1.33 | −$4.86 |
| Will Afroditi Latinopoulou be the next Prime Minister of Greece? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.006 | $0.52 | −$0.20 |
| Clavicular sentenced to prison? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.055 | $0.44 | −$0.68 |
| Will Justin Bieber's monthly listeners figure hit 150m by August 31? · Yes | 0.114 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.14 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$944.66at 0.013Will Bulgaria win the televote for Eurovision 2026?
- +$579.82at 0.036Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?
- +$220.26at 0.816Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?
- +$131.64at 0.342Will Trump say "Percent" 20+ times at The Villages on May 1?
- +$111.30at 0.029Will Hillary say "FBI" during her Epstein testimony?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-30 15:40 | Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? | BUY | 0.888 | $6.75 |
| 08-30 15:40 | Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? | BUY | 0.889 | $35.56 |
| 08-30 15:39 | Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? | BUY | 0.8874444444 | $79.87 |
| 08-27 17:35 | Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? | BUY | 0.892 | $26.76 |
| 08-27 10:44 | Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? | BUY | 0.911 | $38.03 |
| 08-18 03:09 | Will Afroditi Latinopoulou be the next Prime Minister of Greece? | BUY | 0.011 | $0.23 |
| 08-18 03:09 | Will Alexis Tsipras be the next Prime Minister of Greece? | BUY | 0.063 | $0.50 |
| 08-18 03:07 | Will GameStop acquire eBay? | SELL | 0.92 | $51.75 |
| 08-15 05:13 | Will Afroditi Latinopoulou be the next Prime Minister of Greece? | BUY | 0.01 | $0.12 |
| 08-13 05:12 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.231 | $11.55 |
| 08-12 10:37 | Will Afroditi Latinopoulou be the next Prime Minister of Greece? | BUY | 0.01 | $0.12 |
| 08-12 10:36 | Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? | SELL | 0.4 | $4.00 |
| 08-12 06:19 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL | 0.52 | $5.20 |
| 08-12 06:19 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | SELL | 0.982 | $7.37 |
| 08-11 03:16 | Iran leadership change by September 30? | SELL | 0.93 | $18.60 |