sciuboi
0xd6b6f6924341b00626e603240f799644d4b6342b
- Realised P&L
- $329.6k
- Volume
- $12.93M
- Markets traded
- 503
- Open portfolio
- $43.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded503
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$194.8kat 0.303Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?
- +$31.6kat 0.522Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?
- +$30.5kat 0.014Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?
- +$27.4kat 0.689Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?
- +$22.3kat 0.038Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 17:31 | Will Siegfried Mureșan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | SELL | 0.47 | $9.75 |
| 09-17 17:31 | Will Siegfried Mureșan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | SELL | 0.4543105237 | $179.59 |
| 09-17 17:19 | Will Grüne win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.66 | $33.00 |
| 09-17 17:18 | Will CDU win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.1896373057 | $73.20 |
| 09-17 17:16 | Will AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.3 | $123.00 |
| 09-17 17:16 | Will AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.2895085818 | $120.77 |
| 09-17 14:59 | Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of AUR? | BUY | 0.003 | $0.19 |
| 09-17 14:56 | Will Siegfried Mureșan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | SELL | 0.38 | $83.60 |
| 09-17 14:41 | Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be appointed by December 31? | BUY | 0.0566555228 | $3.46 |
| 09-17 14:39 | Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? | SELL | 0.0995778315 | $10.71 |
| 09-17 14:25 | Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat? | SELL | 0.4427272727 | $4.87 |
| 09-17 14:25 | Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat? | SELL | 0.483393897 | $83.01 |
| 09-17 14:25 | Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat? | SELL | 0.59 | $59.00 |
| 09-17 14:18 | Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | SELL | 0.2086781225 | $1.8k |
| 09-17 14:18 | Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | SELL | 0.3129060387 | $291.06 |