0xD6863383BDD6DACE509ad491a021a422b68ED041-1768925805506
0xd6863383bdd6dace509ad491a021a422b68ed041
- Realised P&L
- $611.10
- Volume
- $36.2k
- Markets traded
- 65
- Open portfolio
- $0.83
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded65
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration87.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)4.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026? · Yes | 0.013 | 0.003 | $0.46 | −$1.54 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.018 | $0.37 | −$1.63 |
| Will Nguyễn Duy Ngọc be the next President of Vietnam? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Thierry Mariani win the Paris mayor election? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to 15–20 years in prison? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Park Sung-jae in jail by March 31? · Yes | 0.057 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Phạm Minh Chính be the next President of Vietnam? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Trần Cẩm Tú be the next President of Vietnam? · Yes | 0.032 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.58 |
| Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025? · Yes | 0.018 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to 20–30 years in prison? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$550.74at 0.009Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to at least 20 years in prison?
- +$213.93at 0.014Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $88,000 on January 21?
- +$4.84at 0.508Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET
- +$0.69at 0.314Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET
- +$-0.71at 0.140Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-14 19:02 | Will Trump say "Football" this week? (February 15) | BUY | 0.1363770576 | $5.27 |
| 02-08 22:05 | Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison? | BUY | 0.1 | $2.00 |
| 02-08 22:02 | Park Sung-jae in jail by March 31? | BUY | 0.0569999484 | $1.00 |
| 02-08 22:01 | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to 15–20 years in prison? | BUY | 0.008 | $1.00 |
| 02-08 22:01 | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to 20–30 years in prison? | BUY | 0.0170000001 | $3.00 |
| 02-08 21:53 | Will the US strike Iran next? | BUY | 0.0620912802 | $4.00 |
| 02-08 18:43 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 9? | BUY | 0.012 | $3.00 |
| 02-08 18:42 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 8? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 02-08 18:41 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 8? | BUY | 0.001 | $2.00 |
| 02-08 17:44 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 8? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 02-08 17:44 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on February 8? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 02-08 17:44 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on February 8? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 02-08 17:43 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on February 8? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 02-08 17:42 | Will the Liberal Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.00 |
| 02-08 17:41 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 56 million views on day 2? | BUY | 0.005 | $3.00 |