exploitmenot
0xd63d58be49765b186bd241d4973dc04494d45f12
- Realised P&L
- $-145.94
- Volume
- $10.5k
- Markets traded
- 1,984
- Open portfolio
- $24.19
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,984
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration25.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.089 | 0.017 | $5.58 | −$24.42 |
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026? · Yes | 0.119 | 0.040 | $4.30 | −$8.70 |
| Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.119 | 0.024 | $3.96 | −$16.04 |
| Will XRP reach $2.80 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.223 | 0.033 | $3.70 | −$21.30 |
| Will XRP reach $2.60 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.054 | $1.56 | −$2.44 |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.085 | $1.47 | −$3.53 |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.032 | $1.33 | −$2.04 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.035 | $0.74 | −$2.26 |
| Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.090 | $0.64 | −$1.36 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.135 | $0.58 | −$2.42 |
| US strike on Mexico by December 31? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.029 | $0.29 | −$3.71 |
| Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.031 | $0.05 | −$0.95 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$56.64at 0.346XRP all time high before 2026?
- +$12.98at 0.133Madrid: Whitney Osuigwe vs Simona Waltert
- +$12.69at 0.662US forces enter Iran by December 31?
- +$9.25at 0.770Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$7.68at 0.245Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-20 19:26 | Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $3.00 |
| 09-20 19:24 | Will Islam Makhachev be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.913 | $2.72 |
| 09-18 22:38 | UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.7399999671 | $4.50 |
| 09-18 18:08 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.46 | $4.89 |
| 09-18 15:09 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $3.37 |
| 09-18 13:16 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.7699999992 | $200.00 |
| 08-31 16:42 | Will XRP reach $2.60 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1399999727 | $4.00 |
| 08-15 15:05 | Will XRP reach $2.80 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0764160154 | $5.00 |
| 08-15 15:04 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0699999939 | $10.00 |
| 04-17 11:54 | Barcelona Open: Tomas Machac vs Andrey Rublev | BUY | 0.7299999562 | $2.46 |
| 04-17 11:29 | Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Linda Noskova vs Elina Svitolina | BUY | 0.7899999747 | $2.47 |
| 04-17 11:12 | Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2026-04-17? | BUY | 0.7799999813 | $2.50 |
| 04-17 11:12 | BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Francisco Cerundolo | BUY | 0.8199999541 | $2.47 |
| 04-17 11:04 | Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-17? | BUY | 0.739999929 | $2.46 |
| 04-17 11:04 | Oeiras 3: Rebecca Sramkova vs Petra Marcinko | BUY | 0.7699999877 | $2.47 |