HugoTheGuy
0xd5f69484c06042f1f02f250b49c595cf2ef5b551
- Realised P&L
- $-365.92
- Volume
- $140.4k
- Markets traded
- 35
- Open portfolio
- $93.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded35
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample28 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)53.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · No | 0.261 | 0.195 | $26.91 | −$9.09 |
| Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.002 | $24.75 | −$8.25 |
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.247 | 0.184 | $24.58 | −$8.42 |
| Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.001 | $8.25 | −$24.75 |
| Will Leeds United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.003 | $3.75 | +$0.75 |
| Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.003 | $2.50 | −$0.50 |
| Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.002 | $2.25 | −$0.75 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$48.47at 0.577Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on September 16?
- +$25.66at 0.721Ethereum Up or Down - September 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET
- +$12.90at 0.836Ethereum Up or Down - September 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET
- +$5.51at 0.922Ethereum Up or Down - September 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET
- +$5.14at 0.927Ethereum Up or Down - September 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-19 22:10 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET | SELL | 0.71 | $1.01 |
| 09-19 22:10 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 21:50 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET | BUY | 0.8699999913 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 15:36 | Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.002 | $33.00 |
| 09-19 15:36 | Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.002 | $33.00 |
| 09-19 15:36 | Will Paris FC win on 2026-09-19? | BUY | 0.24 | $33.00 |
| 09-19 15:36 | Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.2469999998 | $33.00 |
| 09-19 15:36 | Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-19? | BUY | 0.24 | $33.00 |
| 09-19 15:36 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.2699999983 | $33.00 |
| 09-19 15:36 | Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FURIA (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs | BUY | 0.001 | $33.00 |
| 09-18 21:41 | LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner | BUY | 0.001 | $3.00 |
| 09-18 21:41 | Will Leeds United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? | BUY | 0.002 | $3.00 |
| 09-18 21:41 | Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.4499999775 | $3.00 |
| 09-18 21:41 | Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | BUY | 0.002 | $3.00 |
| 09-18 21:41 | Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.003 | $3.00 |