Arpayon
0xd5f02cae54de042a04419584a31ccfa11b02932c
- Realised P&L
- $28.60
- Volume
- $13.2k
- Markets traded
- 938
- Open portfolio
- $83.71
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded938
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$23.49at 0.677Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?
- +$18.03at 0.031Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?
- +$15.64at 0.803Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?
- +$10.45at 0.573Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
- +$9.99at 0.839Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 09:20 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.0495049505 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 09:20 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.0449999984 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 09:20 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.05 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 20:01 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.7799995632 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 23:10 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 23:09 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 14:26 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.0239999998 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 14:26 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.0599999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 14:25 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | BUY | 0.91 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 14:25 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.8299999087 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 08:32 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 08:32 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.032 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 08:32 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.0599999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 08:32 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.0339999997 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 08:31 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.032 | $1.00 |