PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

Arpayon

0xd5f02cae54de042a04419584a31ccfa11b02932c

Realised P&L
$28.60
Volume
$13.2k
Markets traded
938
Open portfolio
$83.71

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded938
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration25.8% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration31.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-13 09:20Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?BUY0.0495049505$1.00
10-13 09:20Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?BUY0.0449999984$1.00
10-13 09:20Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?BUY0.05$1.00
10-10 20:01US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?BUY0.7799995632$1.00
10-07 23:10US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?BUY0.64$1.00
10-07 23:09US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?BUY0.649999805$1.00
10-07 14:26Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?BUY0.0239999998$1.00
10-07 14:26Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?BUY0.0599999988$1.00
10-07 14:25Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?BUY0.91$1.00
10-07 14:25Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?BUY0.8299999087$1.00
10-03 08:32Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?BUY0.8$1.00
10-03 08:32Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?BUY0.032$1.00
10-03 08:32Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?BUY0.0599999988$1.00
10-03 08:32Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?BUY0.0339999997$1.00
10-03 08:31Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?BUY0.032$1.00