0xd5d02bda81d97da462b6ab8121046c7c823cccdd
0xd5d02bda81d97da462b6ab8121046c7c823cccdd
- Realised P&L
- $5.53
- Volume
- $367.44
- Markets traded
- 86
- Open portfolio
- $6.81
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded86
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.505 | $1.68 | +$0.68 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.885 | $1.13 | +$0.13 |
| Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from September 25 to October 2, 2026? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.675 | $1.13 | +$0.13 |
| Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in September 2026? · No | 0.770 | 0.755 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? · No | 0.760 | 0.640 | $0.84 | −$0.16 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.545 | $0.68 | −$0.32 |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $216 Week of September 28 2026? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.145 | $0.36 | −$0.64 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.01at 0.229Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
- +$7.01at 0.229Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?
- +$5.92at 0.259Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?
- +$4.60at 0.310Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$4.60at 0.310Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 07:00 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $216 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 22:51 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $61 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.69999972 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 14:51 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 06:44 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 22:42 | Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 12:39 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.759999696 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 04:38 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 19:18 | Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in September 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 10:18 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.4599999034 | $2.00 |
| 09-20 01:29 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 16:20 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.3399999966 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 06:18 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 06:19 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.299999985 | $2.00 |
| 09-16 10:19 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |
| 09-16 02:17 | Will Trump say "Make America Healthy Again" during his remarks in North Carolina? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $2.00 |