0xD586C0fC60A6e409897d1ee60ccDa0B56A9787cF-1757771330745
0xd586c0fc60a6e409897d1ee60ccda0b56a9787cf
- Realised P&L
- $-1.4k
- Volume
- $70.4k
- Markets traded
- 292
- Open portfolio
- $43.69
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded292
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration74.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Papertrade FDV above $400M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.235 | $32.34 | −$7.57 |
| Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.175 | $8.75 | −$5.25 |
| Papertrade FDV above $25M one day after launch? · No | 0.090 | 0.065 | $2.60 | −$1.00 |
| Will Lighter dip to $3 before 2027? · No | 0.565 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$62.10 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 29? · No | 0.014 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.44 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 29? · Yes | 0.469 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$42.12 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$146.67at 0.120Bulls vs. Nuggets
- +$145.00at 0.260Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?
- +$104.08at 0.490Rockets vs. Cavaliers
- +$92.31at 0.520Hawks vs. Spurs
- +$80.00at 0.200Jazz vs. Celtics
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 07:18 | Papertrade FDV above $25M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.09 | $0.90 |
| 10-16 07:18 | Papertrade FDV above $400M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.29 | $39.91 |
| 10-01 08:34 | Will Lighter dip to $3 before 2027? | BUY | 0.54 | $10.80 |
| 10-01 08:30 | Will Lighter dip to $3 before 2027? | BUY | 0.57 | $51.30 |
| 09-30 12:51 | Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 on September 30? | BUY | 0.3887435897 | $15.16 |
| 09-30 08:16 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 30? | BUY | 0.18 | $18.00 |
| 09-30 06:35 | US imposes new sanctions on China by September 30? | BUY | 0.929 | $9.29 |
| 09-30 05:17 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.55 | $114.58 |
| 09-29 14:29 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 29? | BUY | 0.469 | $46.90 |
| 09-29 11:20 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 29? | SELL | 0.52 | $5.20 |
| 09-29 09:34 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 29? | BUY | 0.49 | $49.00 |
| 09-29 04:36 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 29? | SELL | 0.099 | $39.60 |
| 09-28 18:16 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 29? | BUY | 0.05 | $20.00 |
| 09-28 14:08 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 28? | BUY | 0.83 | $352.08 |
| 09-28 04:31 | Will Trump say "NVIDIA" in September? | SELL | 0.4555890909 | $100.23 |