ttttefqesfe
0xd5657d46a8a2eea614f5e0d06c08dfea93ef1094
- Realised P&L
- $-166.58
- Volume
- $17.9k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $154.88
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration59.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)45.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration69.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes | 0.038 | 0.051 | $107.25 | +$27.26 |
| Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.871 | 0.845 | $47.63 | −$1.51 |
| Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 21, 2026? · Yes | 0.086 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.15 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.00 |
| French election called by October 31? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$190.69at 0.514Jordan Bardella next Prime Minister of France?
- +$63.09at 0.500Another New Popular Front member next Prime Minister of France?
- +$31.50at 0.260French election called by December 31?
- +$19.45at 0.286Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
- +$17.00at 0.410French election called by October 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-04 09:36 | Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | SELL | 0.879 | $6.60 |
| 10-04 09:24 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.885 | $7.87 |
| 10-04 09:24 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.885 | $7.96 |
| 10-01 13:07 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.041 | $1.72 |
| 09-21 12:49 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.29 | $12.50 |
| 09-21 12:49 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.29 | $12.08 |
| 04-21 14:37 | Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.083 | $3.85 |
| 10-10 17:26 | French election called by October 31? | BUY | 0.32 | $16.00 |
| 10-09 18:09 | French election called by October 31? | SELL | 0.75 | $37.50 |
| 10-09 18:08 | French election called by December 31? | SELL | 0.61 | $54.90 |
| 10-08 08:53 | French election called by October 31? | BUY | 0.41 | $20.50 |
| 10-08 08:52 | French election called by December 31? | BUY | 0.26 | $23.40 |
| 10-08 08:34 | Macron out in 2025? | SELL | 0.1 | $20.00 |
| 10-06 13:22 | Macron out in 2025? | BUY | 0.11 | $22.00 |
| 09-08 17:56 | Will elections be called before a new Prime Minister is appointed? | SELL | 0.0228888889 | $2.06 |