PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0xd53eF4238Bab3Af3Dc1e81F4C5640dBf42a20B73-1775149557747

0xd53ef4238bab3af3dc1e81f4c5640dbf42a20b73

Realised P&L
$-1.6k
Volume
$688.0k
Markets traded
438
Open portfolio
$2.4k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded438
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration25.2% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration11.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? · Yes0.6510.665$284.31+$6.02
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? · No0.8700.945$239.09+$18.98
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No0.9280.972$179.65+$8.04
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? · Yes0.2640.315$152.55+$24.57
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.1630.080$127.17$133.01
NATO dissolves before 2027? · No0.9500.986$126.15+$4.54
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0610.131$104.40+$55.57
Trump goes to space in 2026? · No0.9600.982$93.58+$2.10
Iran Nuke before 2027? · No0.9070.953$84.07+$4.00
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? · No0.8200.755$79.75$6.87
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? · No0.9100.915$73.04+$0.40
Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026? · No0.6230.675$68.21+$5.23
Will Elon register any party before 2027? · No0.8330.894$62.58+$4.30
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? · No0.6630.725$60.39+$5.18
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? · No0.9080.961$59.63+$3.26

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-17 15:35Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027?BUY0.3699999996$58.40
09-17 15:34Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?SELL0.95$63.16
09-15 14:55Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?BUY0.9499999748$15.06
09-15 14:55Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?BUY0.08$15.51
09-15 14:54Iran leadership change by December 31?SELL0.85$30.55
09-15 12:56Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?BUY0.0899999996$17.38
09-15 12:55Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by December 31?SELL0.66$17.55
09-15 11:25Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?BUY0.9499999901$24.09
09-15 11:25Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?BUY0.6699999988$70.09
09-15 11:25Iran leadership change by December 31?BUY0.8499999912$9.63
09-15 11:24Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?BUY0.64$10.59
09-15 11:24Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?SELL0.92$113.51
09-14 23:36Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?SELL0.17$0.95
09-14 22:15Iran leadership change by December 31?BUY0.8499999977$18.26
09-14 22:15Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?SELL0.2$12.49