0xd52e30d596c4108ad4b64dfdec767c97da53424c
0xd52e30d596c4108ad4b64dfdec767c97da53424c
- Realised P&L
- $8.35
- Volume
- $675.00
- Markets traded
- 236
- Open portfolio
- $1.29
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded236
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration66.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on October 16? · Up | 0.760 | 0.650 | $0.86 | −$0.14 |
| Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision? · Yes | 0.499 | 0.219 | $0.44 | −$0.56 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.44at 0.218Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
- +$6.63at 0.237Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
- +$6.27at 0.247Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 31, 2026?
- +$6.26at 0.249Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
- +$5.92at 0.259Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 08:27 | S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on October 16? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 00:25 | Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision? | BUY | 0.498999755 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 15:51 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 15:49 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 15? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 07:48 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 15? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 23:34 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.726999904 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 02:39 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 18:39 | Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 67% to 68%? | BUY | 0.6199997024 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 01:24 | Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September? | BUY | 0.6099998597 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 04:47 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 19:07 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 19:06 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 11:03 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.2019999612 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 03:03 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 19:03 | Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |