TheBud
0xd4c7a880a646a24080256d0e8f984ee4a6289f6a
- Realised P&L
- $410.68
- Volume
- $13.3k
- Markets traded
- 184
- Open portfolio
- $1.6k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded184
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration9.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration11.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$91.11at 0.180US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
- +$58.24at 0.340US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
- +$53.20at 0.734 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
- +$42.40at 0.357Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$42.12at 0.018Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 07:55 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.67 | $60.30 |
| 08-01 07:55 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.91 | $63.70 |
| 07-31 06:23 | Will Trump not endorse a Party in the 2026 Israeli Election? | BUY | 0.3 | $12.00 |
| 07-13 05:51 | Israel military action against Greater Beirut by July 31? | BUY | 0.72 | $36.00 |
| 07-05 08:44 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | BUY | 0.72 | $43.19 |
| 07-04 09:28 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | BUY | 0.71 | $56.80 |
| 07-04 09:16 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $31.45 |
| 07-04 09:11 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $30.00 |
| 06-28 10:06 | Israel election: will Likud lose seats? | BUY | 0.83 | $8.30 |
| 06-22 15:34 | Israel election: will Likud lose seats? | BUY | 0.86 | $17.20 |
| 06-20 05:54 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | BUY | 0.75 | $27.75 |
| 06-20 05:53 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | BUY | 0.74 | $17.02 |
| 06-17 06:34 | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.31 | $18.60 |
| 06-15 06:33 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY | 0.65 | $39.00 |
| 06-10 15:55 | Israel election: will Likud lose seats? | BUY | 0.85 | $21.25 |