TheBud
0xd4c7a880a646a24080256d0e8f984ee4a6289f6a
- Realised P&L
- $322.95
- Volume
- $14.3k
- Markets traded
- 192
- Open portfolio
- $1.8k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded192
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration10.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration10.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$91.11at 0.180US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
- +$58.24at 0.340US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
- +$53.20at 0.734 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
- +$52.20at 0.478US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
- +$42.12at 0.018Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-08 10:59 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.79 | $47.40 |
| 09-08 10:10 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $21.49 |
| 09-08 10:09 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.69 | $3.45 |
| 09-08 10:03 | Trump renames New Mexico to New America by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $56.40 |
| 09-07 10:57 | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 | SELL | 0.73 | $66.51 |
| 08-29 12:57 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.45 | $13.50 |
| 08-20 15:52 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.49 | $34.30 |
| 08-20 15:50 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.53 | $10.60 |
| 08-20 15:50 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.53 | $26.50 |
| 08-01 07:55 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.67 | $60.30 |
| 08-01 07:55 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.91 | $63.70 |
| 07-31 06:23 | Will Trump not endorse a Party in the 2026 Israeli Election? | BUY | 0.3 | $12.00 |
| 07-13 05:51 | Israel military action against Greater Beirut by July 31? | BUY | 0.72 | $36.00 |
| 07-05 08:44 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | BUY | 0.72 | $43.19 |
| 07-04 09:28 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | BUY | 0.71 | $56.80 |