PolyBot

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Traders

Saltyballs

0xd46be610a32e5c6ee094977e3caf9ab89c525dab

Realised P&L
$180.2k
Volume
$10.02M
Markets traded
858
Open portfolio
$24.8k

Can you copy this trader?

plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.8%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded858
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration24.4% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration28.3% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? · Yes0.6800.680$7.0k+$0.01
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5? · Yes0.9090.900$6.8k−$68.43
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? · Yes0.8300.815$4.9k−$90.36
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6? · Yes0.8580.885$1.5k+$45.27
Iran full airspace closure by December 31? · Yes0.3490.375$830.06+$57.26
Will Miami Hurricanes win the 2027 CFP National Championship? · Yes0.0920.170$675.10+$309.66
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · No0.3690.295$503.71−$126.19
Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026? · Yes0.2990.305$397.52+$7.52
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House · Yes0.0890.055$377.84−$236.85
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · No0.3880.295$354.80−$111.39
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? · No0.3200.255$288.47−$73.53
Will the Indiana Pacers make the 2027 NBA Playoffs? · Yes0.6100.485$208.66−$53.60
Miami (FL) vs. Notre Dame: O/U 58.5 · Over0.5100.490$147.00−$6.00
Will Darian Mensah win the 2026 Heisman Trophy? · Yes0.1230.335$135.53+$85.53
Will Ohio St. Make the 2026-27 CFB Playoffs? · No0.5570.445$133.50−$33.50

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 19:56Miami (FL) vs. Notre Dame: O/U 58.5BUY0.51$153.00
11-01 14:46Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?BUY0.8299999999$2.0k
11-01 14:45Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?SELL0.9$1.1k
11-01 14:43Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 1?SELL0.9931823492$571.35
11-01 14:42Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?BUY0.68$7.0k
11-01 14:42Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?BUY0.83$3.0k
11-01 14:06Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?BUY0.9090304395$8.0k
11-01 14:06Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6?BUY0.8584271504$1.4k
11-01 02:55Will Ohio St. Make the 2026-27 CFB Playoffs?BUY0.5566666667$167.00
10-30 06:25US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?SELL0.061$1.24
10-30 06:24Iran full airspace closure by December 31?BUY0.36$68.44
10-30 06:23Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?SELL0.29$495.17
10-29 21:05Iran full airspace closure by December 31?BUY0.36$10.80
10-29 21:05Iran full airspace closure by December 31?BUY0.3548714553$245.00
10-29 20:44Will Jeremiah Smith win the 2026 Heisman Trophy?SELL0.56$100.50