199yuyiku
0xd447ca59b6f5da7e21d72b18f00a657f4d8ba5d7
- Realised P&L
- $250.94
- Volume
- $11.1k
- Markets traded
- 40
- Open portfolio
- $117.30
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded40
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration63.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample37 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)59.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be 5 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? · No | 0.999 | 0.930 | $117.30 | −$8.70 |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05? · Yes | 0.540 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$128.65 |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.036 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$26.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$539.98at 0.100Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET
- +$171.76at 0.417Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET
- +$120.00at 0.400Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET
- +$14.40at 0.490Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 9AM ET
- +$1.11at 0.991Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 02:40 | Will there be 5 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | BUY | 0.999 | $126.00 |
| 09-11 19:05 | Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $140 end of September? | BUY | 0.9969220862 | $125.70 |
| 08-05 06:21 | Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of August 3 above $110? | BUY | 0.999 | $125.60 |
| 07-15 04:42 | Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $125.30 |
| 07-04 02:10 | Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05? | BUY | 0.54 | $128.66 |
| 06-12 05:20 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.991 | $129.00 |
| 05-18 14:20 | Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of May 18 above $50? | BUY | 0.999 | $128.87 |
| 04-26 23:52 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $129.32 |
| 04-25 00:31 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 26? | BUY | 0.999 | $129.18 |
| 04-13 05:44 | Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.9973674876 | $128.75 |
| 04-10 11:44 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET | BUY | 0.315348 | $28.43 |
| 04-10 11:30 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $296.94 |
| 04-10 06:19 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET | BUY | 0.01 | $4.29 |
| 03-14 10:48 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET | BUY | 0.34 | $52.88 |
| 03-03 16:51 | Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8? | BUY | 0.998 | $55.70 |