881112
0xd426adbc3c4461c86099c26221c877f20e42334a
- Realised P&L
- $454.8k
- Volume
- $19.09M
- Markets traded
- 1,786
- Open portfolio
- $105.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,786
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration25.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration11.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$113.2kat 0.103Government shutdown on Saturday?
- +$98.7kat 0.121US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$37.9kat 0.164Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?
- +$32.1kat 0.125Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?
- +$25.1kat 0.040Will the government shutdown end November 13?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 04:45 | Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad? | BUY | 0.0919816598 | $100.31 |
| 11-01 02:21 | Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad? | BUY | 0.12 | $27.79 |
| 11-01 01:54 | China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | SELL | 0.78 | $1.3k |
| 10-31 22:16 | Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad? | SELL | 0.29866395 | $89.42 |
| 10-31 14:08 | Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.3k |
| 10-31 14:04 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.34 | $504.78 |
| 10-31 13:38 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | SELL | 0.94 | $103.59 |
| 10-31 13:36 | Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.22 | $154.27 |
| 10-31 07:12 | Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad? | BUY | 0.2581855787 | $632.77 |
| 10-31 03:45 | Lakers vs. Warriors | BUY | 0.24 | $199.25 |
| 10-31 03:45 | Lakers vs. Warriors | BUY | 0.24 | $120.00 |
| 10-31 03:43 | Nuggets vs. Suns | BUY | 0.17 | $346.83 |
| 10-31 03:00 | Lakers vs. Warriors | BUY | 0.25 | $46.97 |
| 10-31 02:36 | Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad? | BUY | 0.201 | $1.05 |
| 10-30 22:57 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October? | BUY | 0.055 | $6.05 |