PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

881112

0xd426adbc3c4461c86099c26221c877f20e42334a

Realised P&L
$454.8k
Volume
$19.09M
Markets traded
1,786
Open portfolio
$105.2k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar2.4%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
CautionMarkets traded1,786
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration25.0% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration11.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? · No0.8650.962$9.5k+$964.61
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? · No0.6320.715$3.5k+$411.24
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.2270.255$3.1k+$338.94
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31? · Yes0.2140.225$3.0k+$143.74
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2330.135$2.8k−$2.0k
Will there be no Hormuz agreement? · Yes0.9040.958$2.7k+$150.77
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? · Yes0.6790.735$2.6k+$202.53
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? · No0.5000.579$2.3k+$312.58
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2? · No0.9320.965$2.2k+$75.81
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? · No0.7630.745$2.2k−$52.46
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? · Yes0.4840.525$2.1k+$165.41
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement? · Yes0.2530.300$2.0k+$310.76
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · No0.5970.805$1.9k+$491.55
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? · No0.8600.925$1.8k+$124.61
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? · Yes0.3050.438$1.7k+$511.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 04:45Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?BUY0.0919816598$100.31
11-01 02:21Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?BUY0.12$27.79
11-01 01:54China x Philippines military clash before 2027?SELL0.78$1.3k
10-31 22:16Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?SELL0.29866395$89.42
10-31 14:08Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?BUY0.2$1.3k
10-31 14:04US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?BUY0.34$504.78
10-31 13:38Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?SELL0.94$103.59
10-31 13:36Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?BUY0.22$154.27
10-31 07:12Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?BUY0.2581855787$632.77
10-31 03:45Lakers vs. WarriorsBUY0.24$199.25
10-31 03:45Lakers vs. WarriorsBUY0.24$120.00
10-31 03:43Nuggets vs. SunsBUY0.17$346.83
10-31 03:00Lakers vs. WarriorsBUY0.25$46.97
10-31 02:36Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?BUY0.201$1.05
10-30 22:57Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?BUY0.055$6.05