881112
0xd426adbc3c4461c86099c26221c877f20e42334a
- Realised P&L
- $452.9k
- Volume
- $17.42M
- Markets traded
- 1,396
- Open portfolio
- $127.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,396
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration28.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration11.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$113.2kat 0.103Government shutdown on Saturday?
- +$98.7kat 0.121US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$37.9kat 0.164Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?
- +$32.1kat 0.125Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?
- +$25.1kat 0.040Will the government shutdown end November 13?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 09:55 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.114 | $2.85 |
| 08-02 09:53 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.12 | $1.6k |
| 08-02 09:53 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | SELL | 0.57 | $85.04 |
| 08-02 02:32 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | SELL | 0.46 | $45.86 |
| 08-02 02:30 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.11 | $40.38 |
| 08-01 19:51 | Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? | BUY | 0.4 | $166.90 |
| 08-01 19:47 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? | BUY | 0.63 | $246.32 |
| 08-01 19:47 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? | BUY | 0.63 | $385.71 |
| 08-01 19:47 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | BUY | 0.39 | $277.34 |
| 08-01 19:37 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.12 | $7.92 |
| 08-01 18:58 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1? | BUY | 0.029 | $17.21 |
| 08-01 18:55 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | BUY | 0.52 | $116.99 |
| 08-01 18:55 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | BUY | 0.51 | $5.10 |
| 08-01 18:42 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | BUY | 0.47 | $600.38 |
| 08-01 18:42 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? | BUY | 0.57 | $357.16 |