881112
0xd426adbc3c4461c86099c26221c877f20e42334a
- Realised P&L
- $432.5k
- Volume
- $18.48M
- Markets traded
- 1,613
- Open portfolio
- $108.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,613
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration26.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration10.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$113.2kat 0.103Government shutdown on Saturday?
- +$98.7kat 0.121US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$37.9kat 0.164Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?
- +$32.1kat 0.125Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?
- +$25.1kat 0.040Will the government shutdown end November 13?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 19:22 | Will the Senate pass the Clarity Act by September 25? | BUY | 0.93 | $547.97 |
| 09-15 18:43 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.06 | $1.20 |
| 09-14 13:10 | Iran full airspace closure by September 30? | SELL | 0.06 | $18.00 |
| 09-14 13:03 | Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.007 | $4.89 |
| 09-14 12:42 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.69 | $217.08 |
| 09-14 12:42 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.69 | $11.87 |
| 09-12 16:25 | Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in September? | BUY | 0.21 | $222.60 |
| 09-12 16:22 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.21 | $6.30 |
| 09-12 16:17 | Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31? | BUY | 0.63 | $12.26 |
| 09-12 16:05 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | BUY | 0.13 | $493.60 |
| 09-12 01:55 | Rutgers vs. Boston College | BUY | 0.1 | $543.50 |
| 09-12 01:51 | Rutgers vs. Boston College | BUY | 0.14 | $8.13 |
| 09-10 03:58 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | BUY | 0.55 | $159.85 |
| 09-10 03:33 | LAPTOP FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.83 | $211.92 |
| 09-10 02:51 | Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in September? | BUY | 0.32 | $158.40 |