0xd419f180eff7b2e94ada2e8f4449e962f9a8824e
- Realised P&L
- $7.23
- Volume
- $258.41
- Markets traded
- 74
- Open portfolio
- $8.32
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded74
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · No | 0.740 | 0.949 | $2.58 | +$0.57 |
| Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $177 Week of September 14 2026? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.650 | $1.51 | +$0.51 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.875 | $1.09 | +$0.09 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.615 | $0.93 | −$0.07 |
| Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $336 Week of September 14 2026? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.600 | $0.91 | −$0.09 |
| Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $117.50 Week of September 14 2026? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.270 | $0.52 | −$0.48 |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.100 | $0.48 | −$0.52 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.115 | $0.30 | −$0.70 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.26at 0.249Will the Bank of Israel cut by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?
- +$5.62at 0.270Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July?
- +$3.83at 0.258Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during White House Correspondents Dinner?
- +$3.82at 0.351Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July?
- +$3.72at 0.218Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 11:05 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 15:04 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $177 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.4299998882 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 07:03 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $117.50 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 23:02 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $336 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 13:35 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 05:18 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 09-12 20:45 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 09-12 11:11 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 09-12 03:02 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 12:54 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 04:47 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 19:42 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 11:42 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 03:34 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 19:00 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in August? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $1.00 |