0xd41408b49ca233ecc234dd1d6973243c13a9929d
0xd41408b49ca233ecc234dd1d6973243c13a9929d
- Realised P&L
- $-12.29
- Volume
- $104.75
- Markets traded
- 33
- Open portfolio
- $4.44
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-11.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded33
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample28 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)39.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $184 Week of October 5 2026? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.535 | $1.34 | +$0.34 |
| Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 Week of October 5 2026? · No | 0.630 | 0.810 | $1.29 | +$0.29 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on October 8? · Yes | 0.790 | 0.870 | $1.10 | +$0.10 |
| Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.225 | $0.55 | −$0.45 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4? · No | 0.460 | 0.075 | $0.16 | −$0.84 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.54at 0.288Trump renames AI by September 30?
- +$2.31at 0.308Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $164 Week of September 21 2026?
- +$1.83at 0.359SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 30?
- +$1.30at 0.440S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 30?
- +$0.77at 0.570Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $510 in September?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 08:17 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $184 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 23:10 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 02:14 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 14:38 | Israel military action against Lebanon on October 8? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 14:16 | Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 06:03 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 2? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 11:55 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on October 1? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 03:55 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 1? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 18:50 | Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 10:19 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 30? | BUY | 0.4299998882 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 02:14 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 30? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 17:12 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $64 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 20:48 | Trump renames AI by September 30? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 06:12 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $510 in September? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 21:28 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $344 in September? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |